2015 NFL Week 10 Picks

*I won my top 3 teasers by a combined 91.5 points.

**Home Dogs are better than Corn Dogs!

***More likely, DAL makes playoffs or NE undefeated, both 10 to 1.

****Friday Night Lights reference?

    Last week, I took a minor step back, going just 12-1 ATTS and 10-3 TOU for a 22-4 record, as Jim Carrey said, I've had better.

WHAT I NAILED:

Two Cincy rushers did have more yards then Cleveland's leader.

OAK and PIT over 35 (won that by 38 points).

TEN and NOR over 35 (won that by 27.5 points).

MIA and BUF +10 (won that by 26 points).

Season ATTS Record: 35-3

Season TOU Record: 32-4

Season ATS Record: 9-11

Season OU Record: 5-3

My ATS and OU records are based on picks I LIKED (in some shade of green) not teased.

There are currently 3 home dogs this week and home dogs are 39-5 ATTS this year winning 18 of 44 game straight up. The five losses ATTS were two week 1's (when the lines aren't accurate IMO), Cutler got hurt, ARI scored 28 in a quarter against DET and NE playing against DAL backup.

1.) BUF @ NYJ (-3) - 43

The first game of the week features Rex's old team hosting Sexy Rex's new team. Both are fighting for a HOPEFUL wild card spot and this game is going to go a long way in determining who gets it. Had Big Ben not gotten hurt, I think the Steelers had that 1st wild card spot on lock down, but it looks like it's between NYJ, BUF, PIT and OAK for two spots. These two teams are very similar, both being 7-1 ATTS, 5 wins vs. 4 wins, their difference in points scored is only 9, they're both essentially functioning with backup quality QBs and their focus this year was going to be D and the rushing offense (the Bills have lived up to half that).

BUF is a 4th quarter team, 2nd highest 4th quarter scoring team, 2nd lowest in 4th quarter points allowed. They're averaging outscoring their opponents by almost 6 points in the 4th quarter this year, or a TD sans XP. Based on the fact they have the 2nd highest RuYPG, I am guessing that is because they just wear down the defense over time. They will be going against the best run defense in the league, only allowing 80 on the ground per game, 61.6 less than their season average. I think Buffalo wins that matchup (see below).

As mentioned, the NYJ have the best run defense in the league, but have only faced 2 of the top 18 rush offenses in the league this year. Their first matchup the backup (Ryan Mathews) had 108 yards against them, their second Latavius Murray ran for 113 (both averaged over 4.5 YPC). This tells me that MAYBE the NYJ rush defense isn't all that special. The good news for the Jets is that Fitzy didn't look all that bad and BUF is allowing 260/PYPG. The bad news is they got a new kicker and winds are supposed to get UP TO 18MPH before the game ends. This game is very evenly matched and I can see it coming down to a kick that just for predictor's sake, he will miss wide right.

Both teams are 7-1 TO while BUF is the same TU, NYJ are one worse at 6-2 TU. The Bills have actually increased their scoring output in the previous five games. They've score 10, 14, 21, 31, 33 but I think that stops here. I can't see them putting up 34+ against this Jets team at home, which hasn't allowed more than 24 there yet this year. The Jets have scored at least 17 in every game this year, the Bills have put up 21 or more in 6 of their 8 games this year. They only need 31 total points combined , to get over 30. Of the 15,463 NFL Games played, the top four final game scores are 20-17, 27, 24, 17-24 and 23-20 which all are winners and account for over 5% of all games in NFL history. That may not seem like a lot, but considering there's been 1,022 DIFFERENT scores in NFL history, including 5-3 and 66-0, I like my odds.

I like OVER 30 and if you're betting on a team, go with Sexy Rexy +16 since they haven't lost a game by 16 all year.

2.) DET @ GB (-12) - 48

This game won't be close as the line clearly indicates. All these teams are good in the NFL, so when you have a line of 10 or more, that tells me that the odds makers simply have no faith in you. If Green Bay hadn't lost their last two, this may be 14+ and I think I would still take Green Bay (spoiler alert).

DET is 6-2 ATTS. When you've lost two ATS, while adding 13 points, that's simply not good. In one game this year, they allowed 13 points. Every other game they have allowed at least 24. DET allowed 45 to a team that hadn't scored more than 21 in it's previous four and GB has scored at least 24 in every home game this year. Their P and R DEF are 18th and 30th. They've allowed the most PPG in the league. They're last in TO differential. Teams are getting almost 45% of 3rd down conversions. They only get 69.6 RuYPG (last). Their backup QB made one of the dumbest plays in NFL history (besides the Colts against the Pats this year), I simply don't see any good things coming from this game for DET.

GB is 7-1 ATTS only losing to DEN which frankly I don't think was the correct line to begin with. Aaron Rodgers tore up a CAR Def for 4 TDs and 369 yards (did NOT see that coming) with 3TDs in the second half. Speaking of the 2nd half (more bad news for DET to follow), DET has been outscored by an average of 7 points in the 2nd half this year, the worst in the league while GB is outscoring their opponents by an average of 3.38 points in the 2nd half so that's 10 points... Since 2008, Aaron Rodgers has last back to back games just twice winning the 3rd both times. In addition, he is 6-0 at home against DET in his career. This should be an easy game for him and they think they are going to show off their new shiny starter, James Starks against this terrible rush DEF.

Neither team is very good TU (5-3, 6-2) but both are 7-1 TO. GB needs to put up 35 points (hoping for DET to kick at least a FG in this game) to reach the over. They haven't scored 35 since they put up 38 in week 3. On the other hand, their defense has allowed increasing points the last five weeks.

Getting a team at +24 is a huge line, but this is a team that's lost by 35 and 25 already this year, so the smart money is on GB +1. Of the two, I am thinking over 35 is a better pick because GB's DEF hasn't looked particularly stout.

3.) DAL @ TB (-1.5) - 43.5

Who would have thought at this point in the season that TB would have a better record than Dallas? Dallas went to the NFC divisional game, should have gone to the NFC Championship where they would have played AT Seattle whom they already beat in Seattle, but because it was a three way tie, they got the 3rd overall and Seattle got number one, despite beating them head to head (did I mention that already), I'm not bitter though. Despite having a worse record, DAL has a much better chance to make the playoffs in my opinion because neither team is making the Wild Card, but DAL (15th in the NFC by the way) is just 2.5 back of the division leader (who is playing NE this week), while TB is 5 back. Both teams are a respectable 7-1 ATTS, while TB is also 8-0 TO, with only a handful of teams matching that mark. That'll happen when you allow almost 29 PPG.

DAL simply hasn't won without Romo, they're 0-6. But at least since Dez returned, they've been competitive. They've lost on a last minute FG and in OT in a game that they should have gotten the ball first (again, I am not bitter). Matt Cassel (despite a terrible pick 6) played well last game and so did Darren McFadden (27 for 117). Cassel also found a new friend in Cole Beasley. The question is, can it continue. I believe it can. I just hope McFadden doesn't get worn out if we need him to shoulder the load later in the year for a hopeful playoff run. They're allowing the 4th most PPG in the 4th quarter though and that needs to stop, the good news is that TB is also terrible in the 4th. The problems we run into is that Sean Lee will be out, Rolando McClain is injured and even Dez is questionable now, sitting out practice. For me it's simple, DAL is a top 10 Pass D (tied with the Buccs actually) and this is a game to finalize their season. Win they still have a chance, lose they're out.

TB need this game to hopefully move up in the wild card hunt, although unlikely to make a difference in my opinion. Their start TE has been out pretty much every game this year and their star (not Evans) receiver is Questionable (Vincent Jackson). So they really just have the one option, throw to Mike Evans. Dallas has one thing to do, stop Mike Evans. But also focus on Doug Martin, not an easy task but keying in on two guys should prove to be successful if they can manage to do so. Evans has put up 100 three times this year and Martin has done the same on the ground. They're surprisingly well balanced and Winston is still looking for his first 3oo yard game. I hope he gets it in a losing effort in this one.

As mentioned, TB is 8-0 TO, while Dallas is only 5-3 TO. TB has a terrible scoring DEF so I expect a lot of points in this one. 

If Dez plays, take DAL +14.5 and Over 30.5 as I think he'll want to show up ODBJ's 9 for 105 in this one.

If Dez is out, don't take anything.

4.) CAR (-4.5) @ TEN - 43

These two teams despite having a record 6 games apart, have been trending in opposite directions than you might think the last two quarters. CAR was outscored 22-10 and TEN outscored NO 17-7 since halftime of their game.

CAR is 1 of 9 teams to go perfect ATTS so far this year. They also happen to be perfect TO, the only team to accomplish both of these. They're leading the league in rushing, but 27th in passing. They're tied for 4th in TO differential and they just came off a big win as an underdog (I think this was a miscalculated line) against GB putting up 37 points scoring 24 in the 2nd quarter. CAR is the 4th best 1st half team as far as point differential in the league. Then they just run the ball and melt the clock on you and cover ATTS. They're also 4th in the league in scoring, putting up at least 20 in every game this year and at least 27 in their last 6 but also allowing the 4th most PPG.

TEN is 1 of 6 teams to be at .750 or less ATTS this year which isn't very good. The only team they're better than is the 49ers who are 6-3 ATTS. They're also just 5-3 TO, 6-2 TU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 SU, bottom in the league in 2nd and 4th quarter scoring, but despite all that, Super Mario-ta already has two 365+ yard pass games in his career and he likes Delanie Walker who has been the leading receiving the last four games (Mettenberger started two of those). With MM at QB they're averaging over 20 PPG. As it says above, Home Dogs ATTS are 39-5 this year, throwing out week 1 and ARI (because they just had a stretch where they were ridiculous) the only loser was NE against Weeden but they have already lost by 28 this year. That was Dan Campbell's first game so let's call that adrenaline.

As much as I want to take the over, the last time an NFC South team traveled to Nashville, they score 10 points after averaging 33 the previous four games. HOWEVER, CAR has consistently put up big points and TEN has fairly consistently given them up as well.

CAR is due for a trap game, not sure if this is it, but even if they lose (which I hope they do), they just need to lose by less than 8.5. This is going STRONGLY against my HOME DOG ATTS wisdom and research I did so I think both are okay picks, but going with CAR +8.5 (but I won't be betting). I will however be betting on over 30 between these two teams.

5.) CHI @ STL (-7) - 42.5

STL is surprisingly in 2nd place at 4-4. This is in a division where they have the last three NFC Champions, an Arizona team that was outscoring teams at a pace of 25 per game (despite losing one of those games) and the Rams who somehow beaten each team once so far in their division to sit at 2nd. The Bears can apparently only beat AFC West teams (3-0 against them, 0-6 against the others). Two quirky teams I tell you.

CHI is 7-1 ATTS, with ARI being their one loss. They're surprisingly good on pass DEF (for a 3-5 team), but STL doesn't really have a pass offense, so doesn't help much in this game. Their weakness is their rush defense, allowing 120+ YPG, STL strong suit. I don't expect much from their offense in this game at all and have nothing nice to say about it. Langford had his good game, now he's going to be shut down for a game.

STL is 7-1 ATTS, with their one loss being at WAS (who woulda thought). They run the ball very well, 4th in the league, but only score at a clip worth 3rd worst in the league. In fact, they've allowed or scored 12 or less in 6 of their possible 16 opportunities. Unless Todd Gurley goes crazy against this 9th ranked rush DEF, I don't see them putting up more than 17 and I don't seem them allowing more than 14 regardless.

It all hinges on Todd Gurley, but with only two teams having a better TU record than STL, this is an easy pick for me. I just hope STL Def doesn't cause a lot of commotion in the backfield or get some DEF or Special Teams TDs.

CHI hasn't won a game by more than 3 all year, take STL +6 and Under 55.5

6.) NO (-1.5) @ WAS - 50.5

Here we have out 2nd home dog of the week, a reminder, they're 39-5 this year ATTS. One team has won 3 of 4 (Saints) the other has lost 3 of 4 (Redskins). 

NO is a pathetic 7-2 ATTS this year, losing in OT against TEN last week by a TD. They're just way too inconsistent of a team to bet on. They're also allowing the 2nd most PPG, the 3rd most PaYPG and 8th most RuYPG. Their defense is frankly horrendous. On the other end, their pass offense is 2nd best in the league but their rush offense is rather subpar at 25th, those even out well with WAS good pass and poor rush defense. Despite, the good pass D, I expect Drew to have a good game (playing from behind at the end).

WAS is 8-0 ATTS this year, it helps they've been an under dog in every game except against TB to get those extra points. WAS is one of 6 teams averaging less than 20 PPG this year, while allowing just over 24 PPG. They frankly don't run or pass the ball well, but somehow they just keep covering spreads. They've only lost by more than 14 once this year, last week against NE and NO is not NE, despite just one vowel separating the two.

NO is one of only 5 teams to be perfect TO, they're also 8-1 TU. WAS on the other hand is 6-2 both TU and TO.

Take WAS 14.5 which is a strong home dog line and I don't like the O or U here, but take over 37.5 against this TERRIBLE NO DEF if you have to pick.

7.) MIA @ PHI (-6) - 47

Both of these teams are under performing based on pre-season expectations. The Dolphins were supposed to have this all-world DEF lead by one, Suh. The Eagles had all these offseason changes made by the accused "racist" Chip Kelly via LeSean McCoy and to a lesser extent DeSean Jackson to streamline their team - Moral of the story is if you have a syllable before Sean in you're name, you're likely to accuse someone of being a racist. Neither has come to fruition as MIA is allowing the 2nd most rush yards in the league this year and PHI is one THE lowest scoring 1st quarter team this year averaging just 1.25 points.

As a team, MIA is 6-2 ATTS, losing by a combined 45 points their previous two games immediately after they won their prior two games by a combined 46 points. They had the new coach high (he's new, we want to prove our old coach sucked, let's step it up) but unfortunately that was short lived for them. They were also playing subpar AFC South (which is kind of redundant at this point) in TEN and HOU. When they stepped back in their division they got trounced. Ole Tanne has gone from 6/2 TDs/INT in those wins to 0/2 in his last two. Against the Pats his QBR was 9.7. The overall season low is currently 33.2... By Tannehill himself... They're not in the top 10 in any key categories I can find and they're actually allowing the 2nd most RuYPG. Their best stat is that they are 13th in PaYPG but that's only because they've been down so much they pass a lot. I don't see this going well for MIA.

PHI is 7-1 ATTS this year, also 7-1 TU because their team has started off so poor offensively, but in the 2nd half they seem to rebound game after game after game. They actually have the highest 3rd quarter team in the league and have the 5th best 2nd half scoring differential in the league. I don't see that mattering here though as I think they'll be up most of the game. Their defense is missing a key member in Jordan Hicks (see pick 6 against Cassel last game - Again, I am not bitter) as he is out for the season. They have from what I can tell, three healthy running backs but their biggest problem still remains in Sam Bradford. They say he's getting into a rhythm, but as far as I can tell having a QBR only ahead of Tannehill (yes this game features the two worst QBs in the league) and under 31 in 3 of the last 4 doesn't tell me there's much of a rhythm. If anyone has a big game, it's a running back, probably DeMarco but Mathews is a better value for your money on a DFS site against this terrible rush DEF.

Neither team has shown great consistency either way, PHI and MIA are both 7-1 TU, but MIA is also 7-1 TO, while PHI is 6-2 TO. I'll cut them a break because they were both division games and the OU were 54 and 51. MIA on the other hand put up 44 one game, followed by 7 the next. They put up 14 one game, followed by 38 the next. That's too inconsistent for my liking.

If you are betting, take PHI +6 but don't waste time on the OU, in general the TO is a better pick (83% win vs. 79% TU), so I would say take over 36.

8.) CLE @ PIT  (-5) - 41.5

This is the first of two matchups for these teams, the 2nd to follow in week 17.

CLE, despite being 2-7 is 8-1 ATTS this year, pretty respectable. What's not so respectable is their 19.7 PPG, their league worst rush DEF or 2nd worst rush OFF or 3rd worst 2nd half point differential being outscored by an average 6.33 points in the 2nd half alone. Additionally, they've lost by 18, 14 and 21 in their last three starts. It also appears Interception Johnny is going to be starting as McCown is still having rib issues. Bad, bad bad.

PIT is one of a handful of teams that is perfect ATTS this year going 9-0 so far. The biggest problem is that Landry Jones is going to be starting. That is the only thing making this pick mildly questionable and also making the line 5 when it should be closer to 8.5 in my opinion. He hasn't put up stellar numbers, but CLE doesn't have a stellar D either, so I wouldn't be too concerned, especially since they are going to rush the hell out of the ball against this terrible Rush D. That takes a lot of value out of Brown and Bryant (who Landry loves more than Tyra). Even with Landry at QB, I still think they come up with the victory in this one, despite his appearance wins have been when someone else has started.

CLE is consistent, 8-1 ATTS, TO, TU, but PIT is not as much, going 7-2 TO and TU. In this game, the OU is only 41.5 which is the 2nd lowest of the year for each team. If I had to put 54.5 isn't a lot of points to score, but I don't think with these offenses, they can get it done.

Take PIT +8 and I hope Landry doesn't make me regret it like he did taking ARI +7 just a few weeks back. I don't like the OU here, but take Under 54.5. I can't see either team getting to 27 so that would make it hard to get to 54 total.

***Side note, I like +8 because OT can't affect it and I have a weird deep down feeling that this game make take OT to find it's winner (usually happens when I care more about the late game than the early one - NYG and NE).

9.) JAC @ BAL (-6) - 48

This is another game, where if you would have told me these two teams would have the same record, I would have thought - MAN JAC is playing awesome this year, but in reality, BAL is playing horrible and JAC is frankly still over achieving at 2 wins so far.

JAC is only 6-2 ATTS this year, I don't like betting on teams that lose 25% of their games ATTS, it just shows inconsistency. That's what happens when you make the Jags a favorite in any game. That combined with their 51-17 loss to NE, gets them their two losses. As a home dog, they have 2 of the leagues 18 wins this year, but alas they travel from dirty JAC to dirty BAL to play this one and complete a 5 of 7 game road trip. Bortles is actually playing pretty well this year, in 7 of his 8 games he has thrown for either 298 yards or multiple TDs, including both in 3 of his last 4. Their DEF has been the atrocious part of their game, allowing 29.4 PPG, 264 PaYPG but only 94 RuYPG. Their offense doesn't rank in the top 10 in any of the three statistical categories anyone cares about. They do have two receivers in the top 20 in yards and go against the 4th worst pass DEF in the league.

BAL is one of those teams, that is 8-0 ATTS this year. They've just been finding ways to lose, so they are a sucker money line bet and even worse ATS (1-6-1). They can only seem to win ATTS this year. On the bright side, they're going against a poor scoring and pass DEF this week and either Kamar Aiken or Crockett Gilmore should be able to step up and get some catches - I'm hoping for Kamar. They have a solid rush D, not even allowing 100 RuYPG, but as mentioned their pass D is bad. That slightly worries me, but I think they can still pull it out.

Both teams are 7-1 TO, but JAC is only 5-3 TU this year. BAL just lost their top receiver, but Bortles has two good receiving options, finally gelling with Julius Thomas and BAL pass D is bad.

I would say pass on this because if the final score is 21-14 JAC, you lose both but if I had to pick, I would say BAL +7 and over 35.

10.) MIN @ OAK (-3.5) - 42.5

Here is a battle of the 2014 draft class QBs taken in spots 32 and 36 (respective to home and away).

OAK is 7-1 ATTS this year, which isn't bad and they are certainly over performing in my opinion. OAK has the worst pass DEF in the league, but if Shaun Hill is starting that won't make a difference. Even with Teddy, it won't matter I don't think as MIN is the 3rd worst PaYPG in the league.

MIN is 7-1 ATTS which is respectable, but more consistent is their 8-0 TU this year, only CIN can say the same. They also have the 2nd best record ATS this year behind the Bengals, at 7-1 (CIN is 7-0-1). The big question is whether or not Teddy is going to play. If he does, 16.5 is a STRONG line for a 6-2 team, if he doesn't this line moves more I think because Shaun Hill will be starting. He has a spectacular 1.7 QBR this year and I don't like it, I don't like it one bit. They do have the 6th best rushing offense in the league though, lead by AP of course. Going up against the 8th best rushing defense. It should be a good battle.

As mentioned, MIN is 8-0 TU this year, but OAK has a bottom 9 scoring DEF to combine with their poor pass DEF, not to mention they've gone over in their last 3.

If Teddy plays, take MIN +16.5 as that's a good line and Over 29.5 but I'm not picking either.

11.) KC @ DEN (-7) - 42

I would put my life savings on Peyton breaking a record in this game - Because he only needs three yards to do so. If you'd like to bet on who is going to catch the pass, Demaryius is a +250 favorite. The last time these two teams played, the Broncos put up their season high in points (31) and Peyton put his season high in TDs (3). This game also features the only matchup of two teams that are 8-0 ATTS this year, so expect it to be a close fought game.

DEN DEF is just spectacular this year, #1 in scoring and pass DEF, #5 in rushing DEF. Offensively, they are not in the top 10 in any key categories though. I think they'll get a DEF or ST TD in this one though. They're tied for 5th in the league in takeaways and even though KC is tied for 3rd in least amount of giveaways, every time they punt there's an opportunity.

KC is not top 10 in scoring, pass or rush OFF this year. I expect it to be a long day for Alex, Charcandrick (which is just a really strange name with a last name like West) and Kelce or whomever is catching balls for KC. 

KC is 7-1 TO, DEN is 7-1 TU. KC is 6-2 TU, DEN is 6-2 TO. Their last matchup featured 55 points, but I don't think there's any chance of that happening again. I like the under here.

I think both DEN +6 and Under 55 are strong picks and the fact that DEN had their slip up last week, I like DEN +6 better of the two.

12.) NE (-7.5) @ NYG - 55

If there is a team that Tom Brady does not like, I would have to think it is the NYG. Without the NYG, Brady may be 6-0 in Super Bowls, but instead the lesser Manning has beat him twice.

NE is 8-0 ATTS this year, but they are bound to slip up sometime, despite being the only 16-0 regular season team in NFL history, I feel they are just bound to slip up somewhere. They looked beatable against the Colts, the Bills and slightly the Jets, but not much else. It helps when you put up 27 or more in every game. Their only weakness seems to be their running game which is 26th in the league, but scoring and passing they are 1 and 3. They also lead the lead in least amount of turnovers, only 5 times all season, but their opponent leads the league in TO differential at +11. Combine that with their 3rd ranked rush DEF and this seems like an easy win on paper, but only paper football is played on paper! NE is averaging outscoring their opponents by 10.5 points in the 1st half this year and another 6 points in the 2nd half. They are in the top 5 in scoring in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters as well as 1st quarter points allowed. Lastly, they've scored in EVERY QUARTER except the 1st one of the year, this year, my gosh that's amazing. I expect Brady to have a BIG game - 4/5 TDs, 325 Yards.

The NYG are 8-1 ATTS this year, only losing in their division vs. the Eagles when PHI was on a little hot streak for a bit. They're also 8-1 TO due to their 5th highest scoring offense and 31st ranked pass D. They've put up between 7 and 49 points this year, so they are all over the place. Eli Manning should be playing from behind the whole game and also put up big yards, but I don't know how often NE is going to let him in the end zone.  It doesn't help he still doesn't have Cruz and Donnell is questionable. I don't expect their rush game to do anything though against this third ranked rush DEF.

NE is only 6-2 both TO and TU. The NYG are 8-1 TO and 7-2 TU. NE has put up at least 27 every game this year, NYG allowed between 10 and 52. 

I like NE +5.5 and Under 68 if you have to pick, because 34-28 you still go under by 6 points.

13.) ARI @ SEA (-3) - 45

So far this year the NFC West has been very interesting. SF has lost to these two teams by a combined 67-10 score, but St. Louis has beat both of these teams by a combined 5. The schedule makers knew what they were doing though because these two match up in week 17 for potentially for all the marbles and a Seahawks victory would go a long way in making that matchup that much more important.

ARI is 7-1 ATTS and 5-3 ATS, this tells me they have done a good job in handing out some whoopins! Anyone covering at or above 60% will provide you with a 5% profit, which in betting is pretty solid. Since 2010, there have been a max of 8 teams to cover at 60% or higher to end the season, currently there are 10 so two are going to drop out and it appears the Cards may be one, losing 2 out of 3 ATS. Palmer is having a solid year, 20 TD, 6 INT, 84.8 QBR and on pace for over 4,000 yards but they were down 20-7 against the Browns and lost at Pittsburgh to a Vick/Landry combo in their last two road games. This will be a MUCH harder road game than those. The key will be ARI start to the game, although they were down 20-7 against CLE, they were also up 7-0 and average outscoring their opponents by the 2nd most in both the first (7.13 points) and second (6.63) halves.

SEA is 8-0 ATTS this year, but only 2-5-1 ATS so they've had a lot of close games, their biggest loss being AT GB where Rodgers just plays out of his mind by 10. Russell Wilson has NEVER lost by 10 or more at home in his career. He's also won 4 out of his last 5 against ARI including a 58-0 win back in 2012, a 19-3 and 35-6 win last year. In fact his worst loss at home was 7 against the Cowboys last year and he's only lost by 10 once in his career anywhere (again, back in GB). In fact, he has won 25 games by 10 or more and only lost 1 by 10 or more, including 3 against the Cardinals.

ARI is 8-0 TO, while SEA is only 4-4 TO. The teams are 6-2 and 7-1 respectively, TU. The logic based on that and the fact that at home, SEA is allowing 12.3 PPG tells me to take the under. But Russell Wilson is 26-6 TD to INT in his 14 night games so I expect him to get a TD or two. Both teams also feature two very good rush D's so I expect them to air it out when they run out of running options.

I really SEA +10 and would avoid it, but say take over 32 here.

14.) HOU @ CIN (-10.5) - 47.5

CIN is 7-0-1 ATS (no teaser) this year, HOU is 6-2 ATTs. So when one team has a better spread record than the other when it is teased that is a big red flag to take the winner. No further analysis needed.

CIN is averaging 28.6 PPG, HOU is allowing 25.6 PPG so Cincy is going to score in this one. I think HOU is going to allow a lot of rushing yards this week, but CIN is going to score with the passing game, so I would expect Dalton to have something like 254 with 3 TDs and no INTs. Hoyer should have a big game, Cincy is allowing 271 a game through the air and he's had multiple TD passes in 5 straight games but declining yards in each game.

Take CIN + 2.5 for sure, even though he beat them 24-3 last year and since it is Monday Night, scoring should be elevated so take the over 34.5. Based on CIN being TU 8-0, I actually like that better, but I am going against my wisdom to take 34.5 O.

LOVE:

BUF/NYJ O 30

GB +1

DAL +14.5

DAL/TB O 30.5 (both of Dez Plays)

CAR/TEN O 30

STL +6

CHI/STL U 55.5

WAS +14.5

PIT +8 (but the Browns aren't naming a QB, so you can't bet it).

DEN +6

KC/DEN U 55

NE +5.5

SEA +10

CIN +2.5

Ashley

LIKE:

PHI +6

BUF +16