Quick Picks

Quick Picks

Sorry I didn't get a chance to post this earlier. Did the research and never got around to posting it. Blog and picks will continue this week.

Getting the Best Customer Service

Everyone has had an issue they needed resolved, whether it be an incorrect charge, missing a flight or just restitution for a poor experience you had. I'm going to provide a few tips for getting the MOST out of your customer service experience.

1.) Contact them in the Early Morning

If you're working in a customer service related field, where you are taking inbound calls, more than 90% of which are people that are not happy the day is probably going to wear on you pretty hard. Especially, at least from my experience, the first person can rarely help me and they are seemingly incapable of passing along your information so you have to repeat it. Besides the discounted cost of labor, I think hiring foreigners to take these calls is due in part to the fact they can last longer because they don't understand the sarcasm. Regardless, the point is their days typically don't get better as the day goes on. Quick resolution of the problem is the #1 factor in a good customer service experience. If you get someone that has been beat up on the phones all day, they are more likely to be worn out (working slower) and less cooperative than if they've only had a few upset customers to deal with.

2.) Persistence is Key

Most 1st contacts (these are the initial people you reach when calling in the 1-800 number) that you reach when calling in have the same amount of authority. That's why they are all at the 1st level. If you had a problem with Chase and everyone could reach Jamie Dimon (Chase CEO), you may get a better resolution because he wants to keep your business, but at the same time, that would be impossible for everyone to get a hold of him. So he has directors, than manager the managers, that manage the associates. The associates experience could range from 2 days to 10 years. Typically if you are at a call center for 10 years, you would probably get promoted, but some people are just really content. It's a spin of the wheel to determine which associate you receive, but keep in mind, most places will take notes, so if you complain every time you call in, you may not get the best results.

Currently my dad and my grandma are on our plan so I typically upgrade their phones and sell them because they just want flip phones. Then when they need a new phone it's more lucrative to just buy it outright for them. I've been doing this for many years now and when I was still in college (damn I'm old) I received a "free early upgrade" from Verizon. Typically for Verizon, you can upgrade at a discounted price every 2 years. So as a loyal customer (I believe my dad has been there for 13 years), they sent us one in the mail. I took advantage and upgraded, sold the phone, made a few hundred dollars and moved on. Well soon after, I received another one. But this time, instead of immediately upgrading, I decided to call in and see if I could upgrade early, about 8-9 months, I don't remember exactly. The first person told me no, the second the same, but the 3rd was a sweet southern sounding lady and told me yes. I ended spending a total of 25 minutes to get a free upgrade and make $200 or so. The key was the first two times I didn't fight it, just agreed with their decision so there were no notes made on my account or anything. That year I got 2 more free upgrades in the mail. Personally, I think there was an error of some sort, but making an extra $800 just from knowing how to work the system and very little effort was something I enjoyed very much.

The point is that because I was nice, didn't make a stink and kept trying, I was able to get an early upgrade for free (which I didn't know was possible). I also would like to think that whomever that customer service person was, helped in sending out the free early upgrades I received later in the year.

3.) Contact them via Twitter

"All Publicity is Good Publicity" is just not true. If your CFO, Tweeted out something that was supposed to be a private message (while there were talks that your software was not more difficult to use than thought and it was hurting your stock price) I think that is in fact NOT good publicity. Boom 100 year old saying disproved.

Why is Twitter/Facebook advertising so lucrative? Because things that you like on Facebook or Follow on Twitter show up on your friends feeds'. Typically if you like something (not like on Facebook, but like in real life), the chances are likely that your friends will feel the same or similar. If you don't believe me, pick a friend and name all the things you guys similarly like. David Barlow and I both like, Football (watching, Fantasy, The League), Baseball (watching, discussing), Business (discussing), Golf (playing), Technology (discussing), Saving Money (savings). So when he follows "HTC USA" on Twitter and I follow him, I will occasionally see HTC USA tweets because it is assumed we have similar tastes.

Just the same, when you tweet @DeltaAssist (the customer service Twitter account for Delta) they will respond quickly and are more likely to respond positively because they know people are seeing these responses since they are public. In addition, a lot of these customer service Twitter accounts are monitored 24/7. Lastly, just in case they don't respond quickly, you're more likely to see a tweet you had than to check your sent mail folder as a reminder to follow up.

I had a very good experience with @DeltaAssist when I worked for Reynolds and Reynolds back in 2011. They actually reimbursed me the cost of a rental car to travel from Detroit to Dayton due to a delay in flight that caused me to miss a flight. I highly recommend this strategy if you have issues. I am going to test out my theory at Panda Express today because in the middle of writing this, I was served this undercooked chicken:

***I will follow up when I receive a resolution***

Shermy's Sweethearts

I am going to take a different approach towards sports advice because picking six things is simply too time consuming and I have more success with a Sweetheart Teaser than any other bet. In case you aren't familiar with a Simple Teaser (normally just called a teaser), it is when you buy points for decreased odds. You have to pick at least two games and you can buy points in the form of 6, 6.5, 7, 10 or 13 for football. The more points you buy, the worse odds you get. As an example, if you did a parlay this week and took Dallas (-4) and the under (51.5), you would bet $10 and profit $27 if you hit it. If you teased it 6 points, you could get Dallas (+2) and under 57.5, but a $10 bet only pays $9.09 because you have much better odds of winning. The best way to approach approach a strategy using a teaser bet is to get the most favorable numbers possible. These numbers are +21.5, +17.5, +14.5, +10.5, +7.5, +3.5, -2.5, -6.5, -9.5, -13.5, -16.5 and -20.5. They go on from there, but spreads in the NFL typically aren't much higher. This is supported by the most common winning scores (over the last 5 years) being 3, 7, 10 etc. That being said, getting a spread from -8.5 to -2.5 is considered the most favorable bet because 15.38% of the time, a team has won by 3 points in the last 5 years. Some of these are of course underdogs, but a good statistical note still.

In the past 14 days I have won 7 out of 9 teasers. Most of these are 4 team teasers, teasing 13 points, which only pays $8.33 for every $10 bet. To break-even using this teaser strategy, you would need a winning % of 54.55%, but no one wants to break even. At a 7/9 clip, you would make $766 profit over 18 weeks, $100/week.

On to the picks:

1.) Dallas/Chicago Under 64.5 (teased 13 points)

The highest O/U this year was 58 points between IND/NE and they put up 62. There have been only 17 games this year that have scored more than 64.5 points. That may seem like a lot, but only 5 of those had an O/U of 51 or higher. The point being that games expected to be high scoring don't always live up to that.

In Dallas's last 3 wins, they put up 31 points. If they put 31 and win again, the most points this game has is 61 (30-30). Dallas, who is in the top 3rd of scoring in the NFL has only been in one game scoring 65 or more. Last year at Chicago, the first game in December (very similar to this one) Antonio Ramiro Romo put went for 104 yards and scored a a meaningless TD to lose by 17, even though they did put 73 points. Romo is 7-11 vs. the NFC North and along with being 14-19 in December has the lowest passer rating in that month. I expect there to be a heavy load of Murray and Dunbar, still taking a few deep shots occasionally.

Last year in this game, Chicago put up 45 points (with Josh McCown) and 348 passing yards. Jay Cutler put up 349 this year at home... But lost, 23-20. He has been real hot and cold this year so it's hard to predict. He's thrown for 130 (two games ago), 176 and 190 this year. He's also thrown for 330 (6th ranked pass defense), 349 (5th) and 381 (32nd) this year. In two of those games, Alshon Jeffery was the leading receiver. He's a little banged up and missed practice today. Their leading receiver the last two games, Martellus Bennett however, is not. Also, he used to play for the Cowboys. He hasn't historically done well against Dallas, averaging just 4 for 35. Of their four big weapons, Forte, Marshall, Jeffery and Bennett, two should be little factors. 

If the Cowboys can watch Forte out of the backfield and they win this game AND do so by only scoring 27 points. 

2.) Houston (+7) @ Jacksonville

I honestly thought the Texas may be in trouble last week when I heard Ryan Mallett was not going to play. The reason being, the AFC East has been owned by the Patriots (11 titles since '01), NFC North Packers (7 titles since '02) and AFC South Colts (8 titles since '03). They are the class of the division and everyone else is just living in it. The Texans are 13th in points scored and 10th in points allowed. They have Arian Foster and a very smart QB in Fitzpatrick (even his son is pretty smart @ 1:06 mark), who has only 2 INTs in his last 5 games. They've also won 2 of the last 3 division champs (but it still belongs to the Colts). Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Arian Foster, JJ Watt, Brian Cushing and JaDeveon Clowney (who I think is their waterboy this year, but he's keeping them really hydrated) are just too much for the Jaguars and Justin Blackmon, I mean Allen Robinson, Blake Bortles? Yeah, too much for him. Lastly, before this game, Fitzy had thrown more then 3TDs in a game on average once per year, the last 5 years, last week was his game. I expect him to come back down to earth and get Foster involved more after they build a nice early lead.

The Jags have to go back to '07 to have a WINNING season. They're on pace for a 2-3 win season this season, averaged 3 wins the previous two seasons and still managed to come back, 21 down against the Giants for their 2nd win this season. I will chalk that up to Eli Manning and the turnover prone Giants (they scored 2 defensive TDs). Houston won't allow those type of things to happen. The Jaguars have the 2nd worst point differential in the league, in front of only the Raiders and they've only averaged 10 offensive points the last 3 games, against the 16th, 18th and 25th ranked scoring defenses in the league.

Houston should roll into Jacksonville about 45 minutes before the game starts, warm up a little, beat the Jags and NEVER have the plane stop running. Gotta keep it at a good temperature. The pilot shouldn't even be able to finish any of those Lord of the Rings movies by the time they land and are back up in the air.

3.) HOU @ JAC (Under 55.5)

See above.

4.) DET @ TB (Under 55)

The Lions have gone over in 3 games this year, by 5, 3 and 1 never putting up a combined 55 points and the Buccs aren't going to add much to the total. The Lions are the #1 ranked scoring defense in the league averaging 17.3 allowed. The Buccs are only averaging scoring 18.33, 5th worst in the league. The Lions offense hasn't been TERRIBLE, they have put up 35 and 34 (last week), but the two weeks prior they put up 15... TOTAL. When they put up 35, they followed it with 7... Against the Panthers... Without Greg Hardy. THE PANTHERS ALLOW THE 4th MOST POINTS IN THE LEAGUE.

The Buccs have gone over in 4 games this year and none in their last 6. In 3 of the ones they did go over, they allowed 56, 48 and 37. Going against that defense, I expect them to score a late meaningless TD and only get 10 points. And I don't expect this opponent to get 37, 48 or 56, close to 24 at best.

***Keep In Mind - You Must win all 4 to win anything***

If you win a 4 team parlay, it pays $100 for $10, this only pays $10 for $12.

Good luck everyone and have a great weekend! Look for me on the NFL Network Thursday at the Cowboys/Bears game.

Quick Picks Busy Weekend

Colts -10

San Diego/Baltimore O 46

Giants -3

Raiders +7

Saints/Steelers U 54

Broncos -1.5

Sorry little to research done.

Living Below Your Means

As always, I want to thank the people that are viewing, getting over 2,500 for the week.

This week I want to talk about living BELOW your means. Working with people's finances on a daily basis, I see almost everything. Some people want to max out what they can afford, driving a BMW, living in the most expensive house, living in a great school district, but they've not saving anything on a monthly basis. If you're not saving SOME money on the side, that's just not financially smart.

One of the best ways to make sure you save is living BELOW your means. And the best way to do that is to first create a budget and figure what YOUR means are. If you're in a position like me where your income is SOLELY based on commission that can be difficult to figure out, but it's still doable. The best thing you can do is make guesstimates. I don't know if I am going to close $1M in loans or $300k in loans, but I still live my life the same way regardless of if I do. My biggest "splurge" was what most people would call a practical purchase, my '13 Accord.

A great tool for budgeting is Mint.com. They provide easy to read graphs, easy interface and knocking on wood, no hacks. Some people are apprehensive about using a site that has all your financial data into one place, but they shouldn't be. In order for you to really be at a financial loss, they would first have to hack your password for Mint (which should be different than any other financial institutions) and then do a 2nd level attack on those encrypted passwords. By the time the first hack was made aware, there would be plenty of awareness to stop the 2nd attack.

Here's one graph that I love. It's a "net worth over time" graph. I'm not going to put specifics on there, but this tells me that in general, I've been making good financial decisions. I had a few rough months work wise and wasn't sure if I was still trending upwards, but this reinforced that I am using the principles I try to live by and made me feel better about it. It shows the assets (green), the debts (red) and your net worth is the black line chart. You can see when I purchased my car in July of last year, my net worth went down significantly, because I owed more than it was worth. Once thing I need to do is manually add it to the assets page, which is a nice feature that Mint allows. I have a few loans I've made to people and I can update the balances each month as I receive payments from those people.

The most important thing for our purposes is the budget section. As I have previously mentioned, we have three different types of expenses:

1.) You have your fixed expenses (car payment, student loan payment, internet, cable, cell phone, insurance) that don't change much at all. Internet and cable could vary based on the amount of days in a month, but it's negligible in the amount.

2.) You have your semi-variable expenses (utility bills, groceries, gas) that change more than your fixed expenses, but you generally have a good estimate of what they're going to be. i.e. you might spend $200 at the grocery store every 3 weeks, but that could slightly change.

3.) You have your variable expenses (entertainment, travel, shopping, ME items) that aren't necessarily a monthly event, but you figure those into your expenses more as one time expenses. This is still important to budget for however.

Here's an example of how the budgeting should go for a person making $48,000/year or for calc purposes, let's look at it like $4,000/month. Uncle Sam takes his cut and then you undoubtedly have insurance, medicare, SS, etc. Let's say after all is said and done, you bring home $3,000/month. This your net income, the amount you can take home and do whatever you want with.

Your fixed expenses are the first thing to look at because you can most easily budget for those.

Mortgage or rent - $1k, left with $2k. 

Car payment - $300, left $1.7k. 

Student Loans - $250, left $1.45k. 

Internet, cable and cell - $200, left $1.25k.

Car Insurance* - $70, left $1.18k.

Savings** - $400, left $780.

*Car insurance isn't typically paid monthly, but it should be be budgeted in as such.

**Savings is one thing most people don't budget in, but should be a high priority. If you can't find space for this in your budget, you need to cut back spending or increase earning and typically spending is the more likely of the two.

Your semi-variable expenses are the next thing to look at because those are the 2nd easiest to budget for.

Gas (Car) - $80-100, left $680.

Gas, Electric, Water, Trash - $130, $550 left

Grocery - $300, left $250.

Your variables expenses should be budgeted for by using whatever is left at this point. You shouldn't set a specific budget necessarily, but approach it like above, using the bottom line as your variable expenses. In this scenario, this person has $250 left for going to a concert, going out to eat or any other entertainment or gifts they want to buy.

There's two very easy ways to know if you're living at, above or below your means.

1.) If you make a budget and your bottom line (after entertainment) is negative, you're living above your means.

2.) If you open up a Mint account and your chart clearly shows that you're net worth is decreasing month after month, you're clearly living above your means.

If you have any questions about a Mint account or personal finance in general, my email address is davids@eqfin.com. I do create budgets for people as well as doing simple city, state, federal tax returns.

All this talk about living at, above or below your means got me to thinking, how the NFL teams budget themselves. If they're payroll is much higher than their record suggest, they're playing above their means (which is bad) while the opposite would be the case if they had a good record with a low payroll.

SHERMY'S SAFE SIX!

These are going to be the picks that I like the MOST this weekend with a SHORT analysis.

Last week I went 3-3 again, really half-assed the Bengals game... That does put me at 19-17 for the year and still a WINNING RECORD!!!

1.) KC @ OAK (Under 42.5)

Both of these teams are playing AT their means based on payroll vs. standings (8th and 10th for KC, 32nd and 32nd for the Raiders)

Despite the Thursday night fireworks of early the last two have not been as such, scoring only 27 and 38 points. The O/U is 42.5 tonight and I like the under.

KC doesn't have a great offense, their most explosive game was 41 points against NE, but that was rather inexplicable. The only reason is they were trying to set the record for loudest stadium. The last 3 games they've scored 24, 17 and 24. You know how I like patterns, although I don't think they score 17, I think they add an extra FG, scoring 20. I think they win by the score 20-18 actually. Janikowski may kick 6 FG's... I just don't know. KC was also under their previous five games (before they went over by .5 points) with Seattle. KC is also 8-2 ATS and typically, teams don't finish with ATS records of much better than 60% (on a good year) so they will be coming closer to normal. On the offensive side the TEs are Probable and Questionable and Donnie Avery is out.

The Raiders are at .500... Against the spread. This makes me think it's going to be a decently close game. And if this game is close, it won't be because its high scoring, I can assure you that. Derek Carr is playing, but he's hobbled. The Raiders have gone from scoring 24 to 17 to 6 and by that logic, they may actually score negative points this game, I am confident that won't be the case. They should have a small uptick in offense from last week, I like them to get in the double digits.

2.) CLE @ ATL (-3)

Cleveland is playing well above their means (17th league, 30th payroll) while Atlanta is playing EXACTLY at their means (20th in both).

 Cleveland is still the positive surprise in the NFL I think. They pulled up lame against Jacksonville, but other than that, won the games they should have won. Their lost against Houston last week was against a good Houston team, but that being said they gave up 156 yards rushing to a backup RB. Ryan Mallett is going to be good though, he's going to make that Texans team a contender in the near future. It just stinks for him he is in Andrew Luck's division. They're sitting at 6-4 with their only bad loss against Jacksonville and they get Josh Gordon back. I think they are going to try and force the ball to him too much. Jordan Cameron WILL NOT play. Based on the patterns (W,L,2W,L,3W,L) they're due for a win, but  I don't think they get it done.

The Falcons are a different team at home. They're 2-1 at home (one neutral loss). Matt Ryan has a better rating (13 points), completion % (5%) and record (28% higher) at home. Their only wins are against other lowly NFC South teams so I think it's time they buck that trend. I like a high scoring game here, but I like the Falcons more in this one.

3.) CIN @ HOU (-2.5)

These are two teams living above their means. Cincinnati is 8th vs. 3rd. Houston is 18th vs. 10th.

Cincinnati is the hardest team for me to figure out in the league. I believe I'm like 2-4 in picking their games, but I like a good challenge. And I think this will be a challenge for CIN. HOU > CLE by 16. CLE > CIN by 21. Therefore HOU > CIN 37. That's a little math lesson for you. This game isn't played on paper (except paper football of course), which means anything could happen. The Bengals are 2-2 on the road, beating the Saints and Ravens which aren't bad wins, but I'm still not convinced because the Saints are all over the place. The Ravens loss was due to a 77 yard TD reception late in the 4th to AJ Green. Even then it took two sacks under the two minute warning deep in CIN territory to clinch the game. In addition Vontaze is not expected to play and there's going to be a little RB controversy with Gio being back and Jeremy Hill filling in VERY well for him. I do think AJ Green has a decent game though going against the 30th ranked pass defense.

Houston is a pretty good team this year that just got better due to Ryan Mallett taking over at QB. Alfred Blue has filled in great at RB for Foster and he's going to again today. I think he has a BIG day. CIN is 26th against the rush. There's not enough film on Mallett to fully scout him and he has the skills learned from Brady and two good outside weapons in Johnson and Hopkins. In addition Houston's only two home losses are against Philly and Indy, two of the best teams in the league.

With the line being less than a FG this is essentially a pick EM. Only 8% of games have been decided by 1 or 2 points in the last 5 years. The Texans, at home, more healthy than the Bengals get the edge.

4.) GB @ MIN (Under 50.5)

Green Bay, like most years of late is living within their means, this year exactly 6th in both. Minnesota, mostly due to Adrian Peterson, (23rd vs. 2nd) is living well above their means, they're like a volunteer driving an Escalade.

The Vikings have very little offense. Greg Jennings is questionable, Matt Asiata is out with a concussion and Jarous Wright is questionable with a hamstring. The RBs are going to be Jerick McKinnon and Ben Tate who hasn't had any time to learn the offense. I see confusion and lack of skills causing very few points to be scored by Minnesota. In addition, there's apparently fog, cold weather and high humidity which means slippery conditions. I still haven't learned to avoid weather picks apparently.

Green Bay I am hoping will run the ball often with the weather conditions, knocking time off the clock. The only way this goes over is if GB scores 38 or more points, the max points MIN puts on the board is 13.

5.) DAL (-3) @ NYG

Dallas is living below their means (7th vs. 25th) while the Giants are living well above their means (26th vs. 13th).

Dallas is another great surprise this year. Even as a Cowboys fan, I had them maxing out at 6 wins. I just wasn't confident at all in them. I wasn't the only one, there's a reason they started out 5-2 ATS. Once they beat Seattle and the Giants the first time around, they lost 2 in a row ATS. Well the Cowboys are rested, hopefully Romo's back is feeling better and DeMarco Murray is coming off his two worst performances of the year, 90 and 131 total yards. He's going to be anxious to get back on the field. Also, this is a primetime game and Dez Bryant loves the spotlight. I expect a BIG (maybe even record setting) night for Dez Bryant. Coming off of last games personal best, a week rested I think he has it in him to get 160-165. He has his best numbers again the Giants (against teams he played at least 3 games) so why not? As long as the weather cooperates, this will be a game to watch.

The lowly Giants can't figure it out. They go 0-2 (vs. two NFC leaders) then beat three teams (12-18 record combined) then lose 5 straight, scoring less in each of the last 3 games. Dallas doesn't have a spectacular defense, but Eli can make a lot of defenses look better than they really are. I expect a Dallas blowout in this one. If the weather is good, I also like the over, but potential rain I wouldn't risk that.

6.) BAL @ NOR (Over 49.5)

Baltimore is playing above their means, (14th vs. 22nd payroll), while New Orleans is playing well below their means 21st vs. 7th payroll).

New Orleans is due, so very due. They haven't lost 3 straight home games since 2006 into 2007. Cincinnati destroyed them last week but they are one of the most hard to figure out teams in the league. Right now there is just an NFC South epidemic. When a team is 2-8 and only 2 games out of first, that's just terrible. That being said, New Orleans is still tied for 3rd in points scored in the NFC. That's even with scoring 44, then 28, then 24 and then 10. In addition Brees has thrown for 371, 342, 311, 297, 292 and 255 in his last 6 games. Only having two true RBs healthy (Ingram and Cadet) put all of the emphasis on stopping the passing game. With this being Monday night, we won't truly know who's going to be healthy in the backfield until tomorrow but it looks like Pierre Thomas might be back in addition. Remember these are the same Saints that put up 44 against the Packers less than one month ago, putting up a combined 67 points. Finally, on defense they've been not that great for a while. They've allowed at least 23 in 6 of the last 7 games.

Baltimore is #5 in rush defense (which NOR) doesn't have a great rushing team. Baltimore is #23 in receiving defense (NORs bread and butter). Their offense isn't terrible either. They've scored at least 21 in 8 of their last 9 games. Steve Smith has been cold the last few games, 4 games without a 100 yards or a TD. His targets though are also considerably down which is what really needs to be noted. He had 42 targets in he first four games, only 29 the last four. Last week being a season low 3-17. Torrey Smith on the thee hand has two straight games with a TD and increasing targets the last 3 games.

My short summary, T Smith now S Smith will lead the team for the Ravens. Saints will win a high scoring game.

Have a great weekend everyone!

***Disclaimer - All puns are intended ***

Divisional Battles

Thanks all, now at 2,450 views!!!

Money is the root of all evil... So lets talk about how to win some money on betting...

As you probably know by now, this is a bi-weekly blog, so today's focus on sports betting! There's a lot of divisional or playoff battles on the line, starting with Thursday. 

SHERMY'S SAFE SIX!

These are going to be the picks that I like the MOST this weekend with a SHORT analysis.

Last week I went 5-1 again, damn Browns... That does put me at 16-14 for the year and a WINNING RECORD!!! However, with the vig in Vegas, I would still be down a few dollars.

1.) BUF @ MIA (Under 41.5)

AFC East/Battle to Stay Above .500

The Dolphins defense is actually pretty solid. They've allowed only 43 points in the last four game, less than half of the league scoring average. Remember that thing about Tannehill where every other game he does well? This would be a game where that would be the case. However, he is slightly banged up, Lamar is a little banged up and Branden Albert is hurt. Albert is their left tackle, usually the position reserved for the best pass blocker for right handed QB's. I think this will have a bigger than expected impact on their overall offensive game.

The Buffalo Bills have had 3 games in the past five where the WINNING team had 17 points. That means the most points scored in those games could be 33, if they won 17-16 (which by the way they did on Oct. 19th). Fred Jackson is a likely a scratch tonight, so Boobie Dixon will be filling in along with Bryce Brown and Phillip Tanner.

Both defenses are in the top 10 in points allowed and barring a defensive touchdown, I like a decently low scoring game here. I think the final is 20-17  (which is also the most common score in NFL history). I am not going to pick them, but if the score is 20-17, the Bills by default with a +4.5 spread.

****More picks will come tomorrow, just wanted to post that for tonight****

2.) MIN @ CHI (Over 46)

NFC North/Battle to Stay out of the Basement

Minnesota is on a winning streak. It's against Tampa and Washington, but it's still a win streak. The Bears had one of those, back in September. They beat the 49ers (impressive) and Jets (expected). They're currently on a 3 game losing streak. Based on patterns, I can see Chicago pulling this one out, L W's L L W L L L (W?). Minnesota's pattern is pretty similar, but it started with a W instead of an L, W L L W L L L W's (L?). Against common opponents, it's absolutely amazing how similar they are. Both have won one game, beating the Falcons (by 13 and 14 respectively). They've also lost to the Packers (32 and average of 31), Buffalo (1 and 3), NE (23 and 28).

I just can't quite put my finger on these Bears. They get upset by Buffalo (and now backup QB), then come back to beat San Fran. They get killed by Green Bay then double up the Falcons. They then allow 51+ points in back to back games, putting them in company with the Rochester Jeffersons (who got one of their only two wins against NFL opponents beating the Columbus Panhandles... Not a strong name). The Jeffersons were bad. These Bears are bad... I think... Their defense is terrible, worst in the league by PPG. Guessing that has something to do with Charles Tillman not being in there and the fact that Marc Trestman is an offensive minded coach. They've allowed more points in each successive game for four straight, that ends here though, the Vikings won't put up 56 or more.

The Vikings are doing nothing impressive this year. Their wins are against teams that have a combined 10-26 record. Their losses are against teams with a combined 29-17 record. Beating the bad, losing to the good. One good sign is that Teddy Bridgewater's passer rating has increased the pass 3 games.

There's too much similarity and inconsistency between these teams to choose a winner on the spread, you get 3 points for being a home team and that's why the spread is 3 points, these teams should probably end up at a 28-28 tie. You have to find what's been consistent. The Bears defense has CONSISTENTLY bad. They've allowed the most points in the league and only two of those were allowed by the offense or special teams, so not a lot of overstated poorness there. The Vikings have scored more and more points the last four games. I think Teddy gets his 2nd career 300 yard game, Forte has 130+ total yards of offense and this one barely goes over, maybe on a last minute FG to make the score 24-23.

3.) HOU @ CLE (Under 41.5)

Wild Card/Newest Expansion Teams/Brady's 2011 Backups

This could POTENTIALLY be two wild card teams in the AFC, although Houston would need to step their game up. The likely division winners are Patriots, Colts and Broncos. The AFC north is still up for grabs, and potential wild cards teams include Miami, Buffalo, all of the AFC North, Houston, KC and San Diego. Still a lot to be determined.

The Browns, after going over in their 1st 4, have now gone under in their last 5. They've only allowed more than 17 once in their last 5 and that was due to two fourth quarter TD drives of 8 yards and 7 yards, so the true score of that game was closer to 10-6. Their offense has put up an average of 23 points the last 3 games against TB, OAK and CIN (all of which who are negative on point differential or the season). Jordan Cameron is out again, Andrew Hawkins is banged up and of course Josh Gordon is still out until Monday. I kind of see this being a Christmas like game for the Browns. Josh Gordon is the big package waiting to be unwrapped. Their offense, which despite early success really isn't that good... Hoyer has thrown for multiple TD's twice this year. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick has done that more times (Segue)...

But Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't starting, Ryan Mallett is (I sponsored his page because I think he is going to be a star here soon and just in case people check it out, whether from Texas or Ohio, I am licensed in both states). That being said, I have one less NFL reception than Mallett does NFL completions. The word is that Mallett has a hell of an arm, he also sat behind behind Tom Brady for the 2011-2013 seasons. Kind of reminds me Aaron Rodgers... Drafted from a decent size school, sat behind a future hall of famer for 3 years and is said to have a great arm. Not many rookies come out in their first game and have a great showing though. Rodgers went 18-22 with a TD, but I don't expect those numbers from Mallett because this is a midseason change, not the revolving carousel that was Brett Favre's retirement decision. Arian Foster has been limited in practice, more precautionary I am sure, but he's had health issues so he's not 100%. On the defensive side they are expected to have Clowney, Watt and Cushing healthy for the 1st time all season. They've been STRONG defensively, so the Browns should be a little intimidated by that.

I really like the under, like it more as a tease of 6 points, making it under 47.5. If I had to guess though, I would say the Browns pull this one out because Mallett just hasn't had the reps with the 1st teamers. If the Texans get one or less TD's from their special teams or defense I really, really like the under, but I feel like they may go crazy at mostly full strength.

4.) SEA @ KC (-2)

Former AFC vs. Current AFC

For all those Seahawks fans holding their breath when the team fell to 3-3, they're now 6-3 and showing they're not completely done yet. However, as far as covering a spread on the road, they're 1-3 this year. Their one win (that probably should have pushed) was thanks to a 30 yard screen pass to Marshawn Lynch with 2:33 left in the game against Washington. 

On the opposite side, the Chiefs are a very good home team. They're 3-1 ATS at home this year and one of three 7-2 ATS teams in the league overall. In betting, most trends even out. Since 2003 the best ATS record is 58%, the worst is 41%. 58% is profitable, but barely nets a profit. They're also 2-7 on the over, which means they've had 7 of 9 games go under. The Chiefs are eventually going to even out a little between ATS and O/U. 

The money is on Seattle (57%) and the under (71%). But Seattle is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 Over. I like KC in this one, leaning towards the under, but not touching it.

5/6.) CIN @ NO (-6.5) (Over 50)

Who Dat vs. Who Dey

New Orleans is great at home, the Bengals are not good on the road.

The Saints are covering at a CRAZY rate of 76% at home since 2011 (which includes 4-4 Bounty Gate year). That means that betting $110 on them to cover at home would have profited you $1,430, take out 2012 and that's a profit of $1,470 on only 21 games, pretty solid. Mark Ingram has looked like a man. Drew Brees is just better at home. He's got a winning percentage that is .135 better, he's thrown 61 more TDs and 7 less INTs, a rating of 10% points higher and he just lost his last game at home, winning his previous 11 starts there. Throwing out 2012 again, he hasn't lost back to back home games since 2009 when they started 14-0 and clinched everything up. I don't see this being the next time.

The Bengals are another confusing team. They beat Baltimore twice this year, but lose by 21 to Cleveland. They lose by a combined 70-17 against the Pats and Colts and tie a not very good Carolina team. Their trend is downward. But hey, at least Dalton won't have any wind issues this time around. Giovanni and Burfict I don't see playing or playing well if they do due to injuries.

The Saints are 7-2 Over, 2-2 home ATS.

The Bengals are 4-5 Over and 1-2 away ATS (sole win in week 1).

I don't see the Saints losing again at home and coming out strong. I like their offense in this game, I think Andy Dalton bounces back too to produce some offense, but not enough to win this one.

Have a great weekend everyone!

***Disclaimer - All puns are intended ***

Holiday Travel - Road Trips

FIRST OF ALL, I want to say thanks to all the people that have viewed the blog. We're at 2,321 views and growing. Keep viewing, sharing and sending me questions, compliments or things you don't like.

Holiday Road Trips

can be so very boring, frustrating and stressful. So let me take some stress off of your plate and let you put that Thanksgiving turkey on it.

Last year more than 43.4M Americans traveled 50 miles or more for Thanksgiving. That's down from 44M the year before and 90% of them travel by automobile. So based on the numbers, most of you reading this are going to travel more than 50 miles total by automobile for Thanksgiving. Just for me to drive from Columbus to Vandalia it's 75 miles. Then to go to Cincy from Vandalia is another 64 miles. Then 64 back to Vandalia, some miles in between going to Centerville and maybe Tipp City, then 75 back to Columbus on Sunday. I'm well over 300 miles on my trip and I am sure a lot of you will drive even more than that.

TIPS:

1.) Get GasBuddy - iPhone, Droid, Windows Phone or Blackberry??

     a.) If you have a Blackberry... Get rid of that.

     b.) If you know you're going between Columbus and Dayton and you're going to need gas, don't just fill up just anywhere, check the GB Map. Right now, Sam's club is offering gas a cheaper price, I'm a member, so I should fill up there if it's within reason. You may say, it's only a few cents/gallon which is like $1 saved maybe. But remember, it's not about the individual savings, it's about all the savings as a whole.

      c.) By reporting gas prices, you also help other consumers and can be entered to win prizes such as free gas. It takes less than 10 seconds to report the price so if you just catch a red light, it might be worth it to open it up.

2.) Stock up on Gas

     a.) It's cold out so the gas won't evaporate as quickly, storing it may be worthwhile.

     b.) Gas prices usually go down in early November right before Thanksgiving (also right around election time) and typically go up in the days before Thanksgiving. Stocking up on gas would have saved you an average of $0.20/gallon the last 3 years. You may not think it's much, but when gas prices up $0.20/gallon you sure notice.

3.) Previous Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance. 

    a.) As my dad always said, remember these P's... Plan your trip accordingly and make sure you're aware of any alternate routes. More people on the road, means more congestion and more accidents which leads to more traffic, more stress and less people knowing what to do. Get ahead of the game if you're traveling from Columbus to Pennsylvania or some other unfamiliar area that you travel to once a year. Most of the people on the road won't have any idea what to do if there's an accident other than wait for it to get cleaned up. They're just as unfamiliar with the area as you are.

Did you know you get worse gas mileage idling in your car than going 150 MPH? So why would you just sit in a car, pumping the heat and not going anywhere?

4.) Download a Google Maps, Waze or SigAlert.

   a.) These apps work well in conjunction with the tip #3. If you know traffic is ahead, you can try and avoid it. Personally, I like Google Maps because it's integrates with Waze and tells you any reported accidents and what's ahead. I would suggest every 30 minutes having a passenger check Google Maps to see if there is any red ahead, meaning traffic. Also there will be a little notification if there is an accident.

5.) Get Your Car in Shape

   a.) I wouldn't run a marathon (at all, regardless of the circumstance, never ever) if I wasn't in shape (which I am not), so why would you make your car drive all that distance when it is used to your 20 minute commute? Now, I don't mean waste gas driving 30 minutes, then 40 minutes to build up the endurance, but make sure your car is tuned up in the best MPG condition it can be in. Get an oil change, check the tire pressure, check the air filter and drive on cruise when applicable. You can save more than 20% in fuel by following these tips.

Now lets look at some road trips in the NFL.

SHERMY'S SAFE SIX!

These are going to be the picks that I like the MOST this weekend with a SHORT analysis.

Last week I went 3-3 again. It should have really been like 3-3.5 (that Miami game was such a blowout, I should lose a half a point for that). For the season we sit at 11-13, but guess what, only one of these "experts" was over .500 last year, so I feel okay with that.

1.) CLE @ CIN (-6)

I-71 (4 Hours)

The Browns started 4-0 on the over, they are now 4-4 O/U. 

The Bengals started 0-3 on the over, they are now 4-4 on the O/U. 

It appears going after that is a crapshoot. My thought would be the under with the strong wind expected, but mixed with potential rain, that could mean some unexpected turnovers and quick scores so I am staying away. 

AJ Green proved he is back, Jeremy Hill proved he can run and Jordan Cameron proved that playing football does have consquences (and I don't mean having your sister knocked up by Matt Leinart then Blake Griffin). HE HAS A CONCUSSION. Also, Josh Gordon is still a car salesman which is very different from selling cars because at least check, he hasn't sold a car yet. Cameron out, Hoyer sore butt, Hawkins is questionable (their top target man). The Browns lost to Pittsburgh when they were bad, beat Pittsburgh right before they got good, lost to Jacksonville (who is always bad), beat the lowly Raiders and Buccs and came from behind by 25 to beat the Titans and Charlie Whitehurst (as Locker got hurt). They're unpredictable, but so is the traffic on I-71. 

It's a rivalry game, so it should be close, but it won't be. I think the Bengals continue their home winning ways, win by a TD. Bonus prediction, I feel that we have a Johnny Manziel appearance at some point.

2.) MIA @ DET (Under 44)

I-75 (20.5 Hours)

Ryan Tannehill has played good in every other game for the last five. Even the games in between he hasn't been turrible, but his QB Rating has been over 100 in games 1, 3 and 5 ago. He's also accounted for over 300 yards in each of those games (combined running and passing). Miami's defense has been oustanding, bolstering to a 1st place tie for the best defense in the league. 

Detroit's offense has been okay, but not the great offense they've showed in the past or even in the 1st game of the year. They haven't scored more than 24 points since the first game of the year. In fact, they're the 3rd lowest scoring team in the NFC in front of Tampa Bay and St. Louis. Excluding the first game of the season, their PPG would be ranked 29th in the league.

Great playing defense (Miami), poor playing offense (Detroit), Tannehill odd numbered game along with Megatron being interegrated back into the offense, I see a struggle. I'll take the under on this one, but I do like Detroit to pull out the victory.

3.) ATL (-2.5) @ TB

I-75 (7 Hours)

Atlanta has played bad. They've lost to MIN (13), NYG (10), CHI (14), BAL (22) and DET (1). Those teams have a combined winning percentage of .500 so at best they're average. There has been 134 games and only 11 have had a spread of 10 or more. That tells me they're losing by much more than even the huge underdogs are predicted to lose by. Flip it, the 1st game of the season the 3rd game of the season (before the above streak started) they won by 42 points against this TB team. ATL now has lost their starting center, back up center and three other starting lineman, not good.

That being said, Tampa Bay is BAD. When a team playing as bad as Atlanta is comes into your house and is favored, that means you're playing really bad. This is a real crap bowl quite honestly. TB has lost five straight, but before that they won. Before that they lost five straight, but before that they won. So, does the streak continue? Can they actually pull off a victory here?

I'm going to say no. Atlanta is the less crappy of the Crap Bowl and I think they can win by a FG in this one, I mean you can't go from winning by 42 to losing, can you?

4.) DEN (-11) @ OAK

I-80 (19 Hours)

Teams favored by 11 are 15-27 since 2003. Teams that are 11.5 point favorites cover at a rate of 13-10. So there's that. I personally think Peyton is going to be a little pissed off after losing to Tom Brady... Again. Last year after Peyton lost to Brady, in New England he through 5 TD's against the Chiefs, in KC, when they were undefeated. 

The Raiders are just...defeated. They've been within a TD of winning 4 times. This won't be one of those games.

Not much to say... Denver covers.

5.) DAL @ JAC

U.S. Airways (12H to, 17H fro)

Due to the wind, this trip is much longer coming back and I think the same will be said for the Jaguars. Romo is not projected to play via the GM, CEO, President AND Owner. No there aren't four different people confirming it, just Jerry Jones himself. Personally, I would like to see Romo rest, then rest next week on the bye, then come back for the tail end of the season. Despite how bad Weeden has looked and how much Jerry wants that possible playoff revenue, it doesn't matter if you make it to the playoffs if your QB is too sore to play in them. Dallas is America's team and Sunday they will be London's team.

With common opponents the Cowboys have a winning margin of 3 while the Jaguars are (-33). When you Google a QB and his gf comes up in the top 3, or even twice in the top 7, that's usually not a good sign.

Even Tom Brady's search waits until the 4th result... And he's married to one of the most famous supermodels in the world...

6.) CHI @ GB

Lake Michigan (Varies due to sharks)

This should be a great, high scoring affair. The last few meetings (in no specific order) have put up 55, 61, 47, 56 and in January, 2011... 13 points. Usually MNF games are high scoring, averaging almost 49 points/game this year. But I am not going to pick the O/U because weather can play too much of a factor in my opinion.

Green Bay, after covering four times in a row, really crapped the bed against the Saints, but that was Drew Brees, that was Sunday night that was in New Orleans and I can just imagine how tough it was to play there. I will give the Packers a reprieve on that. It's hard to beat anyone when they run for almost 200 yards and keep you off the field. Also being -2 in the TO department doesn't help. His hamstring really got in the way of a good thing. With 9 minutes and change, Rodgers scrambled to the right and came up lame. The game changed quickly after that. He threw 17 TDs and 0 INTs in the 6 games before that injury and threw 2 INTs and 0 TDs in the next two quarters. He's now had almost two weeks to heal and they're coming off a bye.

Chicago on other hand has lost by 21, 7, 13 and 28 in four of their last five games, including the 21 point loss to the Packers, at home. In two of those games, Forte has been both their top rusher and receiver. Against Miami he could have through a few passes and probably been their top passer too. Brandon Marshall is due for a big game, having only 1 100+ yard game (he had 6 last year) and he wasn't even the leading receiver on his team that game. They have the offensive weapons, Alshon, Marshall, Fotre, Bennett, Cutler, but they can't seem to put them all together. I just don't see it happening on the road, tough Green Bay crowd, division game, at night, coming off a bye week.

I like the Packers to cover in this one at home.

Have a great weekend everyone!