***Jameis is humble.
***I won my top 3 teasers by a combined 134.5 points.
***Which Bengal RB will get the 100 yard game?
Sorry about the format at the end, finished from home and the mobile version for Blogger is not very good.
Last week, was the first time that I decided to pick each and every game with a prediction whether I liked it or not. I finished with what I think is an amazing record of 27-1 but I am still trying to find my perfect week. My one loss was when Ryan Fitzpatrick got knocked out after 3 passes (going 3 for 3 by the way) and you can't control injury.
WHAT I NAILED:
I am most proud of predicting that Jimmy Garoppolo would finish for Tom Brady.
Cincy and Pitt under (won that by 35 points).
Ten and Hou under (won that by 34.5 points).
NYG and NO over 36 (won by 65, won in the 2nd quarter).
Season ATTS Record: 23-2
Season TOU Record: 22-1
Season ATS Record: 6-8
Season OU Record: 2-0
My ATS and OU records are based on picks I LIKED (in some shade of green) not teased.
1.) CLE (+11) @ CIN (-11) O/U 45.5
This matchup has provided some interesting games of late. The home teams just last year lost a combined 54-3. The previous year they scored a combined 23 in one game and 61 in another. The previous year they scored 61 and 58 in the other. Of course, who can forget 9-16-07 when Derek Anderson threw for 5 TDs (never through for 4 in any other game) and Palmer threw for 6 in a 51-45 thriller in Cleveland. But again, as much as the past is fun to talk about, it's based on these present teams. Anderson and Palmer are both on teams leading their divisions, but only 1 has throw a pass this year so times have changed.
CLE is now 7-0 ATTS in their last seven games, only winning one of the last six though. They lead the Cards 20-7, then missed the XP, then got outscored 27-0. I can see a similar situation happening this week. Except without them having the 20-0 lead. 24 points is A LOT, but the last time the Browns lost by 24... Was against the Bengals. CLE is allowing 147 RuYPG, which is almost 10% more than 2nd place while only rushing FOR 84 yards/game (and they wanted two 1st round picks for one of their lineman). The leading rusher for each team in CLE's last four games has out rushed CLE's leading rusher 469 to 135. Three times this year CLE's opponent has had TWO guys rush for more yards than their leader. The moral of the story is their rush O is bad, their rush D is bad. So let's bring in Johnny (who by the way will be their leading rusher in the game almost guaranteed). His rating isn't actually terrible at 93.2, but this crowd is going to DESTROY him. I don't think he is going to WRECK THIS LEAGUE but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals WRECK HIM.
CIN is a solid 6-0-1 ATS this year. They are on pace (since they haven't lost) to set the record for best ATS all time held by the 2004 San Diego Chargers at 13-1-2. That is quite far off though and they have a lot of work to meet or beat that mark. Their previous biggest line was -3.5, so a jump to -11 is substantial. They have however already won three games this year by 11 or more. I like to start with the QB as he touches the ball more than anyone. Dalton in his career has thrown 11 TDs and INTs against the Browns. Let's throw out his 1 home loss where he played just terrible (10/33, 3 INTs, 0TDs) because it was 1 year and 1 day ago (as of gametime) and I think he's past it. He is 3-0 with 7TDs, 3 INTs, pretty solid. But I think the focus is going to be on the run game for the Bengals against this porous run defense. The Bengals will assuredly get two rushers past the Browns leading rusher, but I don't know which one will be the stud in this one. Bernard is averaging 5.6, no fumbles but only got one rush last week. Hill is averaging 3.3, but has 5 TDs, also 2 fumbles and got 15 rushes.
Before last week, Cincy was 6-0 Teased Over (TO), but as I predicted, it would go under. They only had 6 points through the first 57 points put up 10 in the end to stay undefeated. Including last week, the Browns are 7-1 SU Over. The Bengals good offense (28.3 PPG), the Browns poor defense (27 PPG) and the turnover battle this year has been CLE -4/CIN +4 in the turnover department means CIN should be getting some good field position off of Johnny getting a little CRAZY, leading to some scores. Clear skies as well, which I really like.
I like CIN +1.5 and over 32.5.
2.) OAK (+4.5) @ PIT (-4.5) O/U 48
This is a potential battle for the wild card, currently 5th and 7th in the AFC. Both teams are unfortunately in divisions with 7-0 teams. Before this week, there were actually 5 divisions with undefeated teams, now just the 3 AFC non-South and NFC South.
OAK is 6-0 ATTS, their last 6 going 4-2 ATS and SU. OAK has looked VERY good after their opening loss to the Bengals. Since that game, losing the two games by a combined 8 points but their schedule hasn't been all that impressive though other than DEN. Their opponents record is a combined 12-52 and the best team they played (NYJ) had their QB knocked out 3 passes into the game. Even so, their rush defense is 2nd in the league (82.9 RuYPGA) but their pass defense is 2nd worst (302 PaYPGA). OAK is 10th in PaYPG and 20th in RuYPGA so nothing stands out there. I think Derek Carr could have a good game though because I see them being down late in this one.
PIT is 8-0 ATTS this year. Even with backups in, they still managed to make games close losing a division game late, but losing by 10 to the Chiefs somehow and beating the Cardinals. As mentioned in a previous post, I have been a little confused about this team with backups. Also previously mentioned was that Ben doesn't play well in games returning from injury. Well he now has that game behind him and he can be the Ben of old. He threw for 351 and 369 before the game he got hurt. I expect the running game to be slowed down and Ben to have a BIG game, along with Antonio Brown and you may or may not recall but the Raiders had been terrible earlier in the year against the TE so Heath Miller may make an appearance like he did last week. I like both him and Brown to have a TD.
OAK is 6-1 TO while PIT is 7-1 TU. However, OAK's one TO loss was against the spectacular DEN defense who only allows 16 PPG. PIT may only be allowed 18.4 PPG, but they DO NOT have the same defense as the Broncos AND I expect them to get up big which means prevent defense and some good opportunity for late scoring.
Again, typical teaser logic says take a team that's +17.5 and 6-0 ATTS in their last 6, but I'm liking PIT at +8.5 I actually really like them on the money line as well, I expect Ben to put up BIG numbers too, so really like over 35.
3.) JAC (+2.5) @ NYJ (-2.5) O/U 40
JAC won their last game, NYJ lost theirs. That's about the only positive I see for Jacksonville.
JAC is only 5-2 ATTS this year. Getting 13 points BEYOND the spread and losing almost 30% of those is just not very good. They're middle of the league in PaYPG, 25th in RuYPG, 22nd in PPG, 24th in TO differential and last in XP % (they've already missed 3 this year). I guess the best thing they got going for them is they're only 1/2 game out of first somehow at 2-5. I think you can see where this is headed.
The NYJ have Fitzy starting again. He may be hobbled which worries me a little, but in games he's finished they're 6-0 ATTS. They have the best rushing D in the league (sorry Yeldon) and 8th in passing D (sorry Bortles). It concerns me that I don't know how Fitzy will play in this game. Despite that, I still think Ivory can have a good game and TBD on Fitzy.
JAC is 6-1 TO, NYJ are 6-1 TO and TU. JAC has put up 34, 20 and 31 in two of their last three games against the HORRID HOU defense, TERRIBLE TB defense and BAD BUF defense (allowing 34 in back to back games). I expect that to change in this game against a good defense.
I won't put money on Fitzy or the Jets, but take the NYJ at 10.5 but I do like under 53 in this one.
4.) STL (+3) @ MIN (-3) O/U 40
MIN has probably had the quietest .714 winning percentage I can remember in some time while the Rams have been the silent instigator (knocking off SEA and ARI) but also because they took out Reggie Bush and Josh McCown with field injuries the last two weeks. In the same way, if you would have told me both teams would be over .500, I would have been VERY surprised and probably said...
STL is 5-0 ATTS their last 5. They've also held their last two opponents to just 6 points in each game. Gurley has rushed for 128+ yards in 4 straight games. It'll be tough, but I think he may be able to do that again, because it certainly won't be Napoleon, I mean, Nick Foles doing it. He's only thrown for more than 200 yards in one game this year.
MIN is 6-0 ATS (notice the missing T) in their last six. They've done it by putting up more than 28 only once. They do it by stopping teams on 3rd down, only allowing a 1st down 1/3 of the time on 3rd down (STL has the worst 3rd down conversion % in the league). They also do it by committing the least amount of offensive and 5th least defensive penalties in the league. That tells me they are very disciplined. They're also top 10 in PYPGA but nothing else really stands out, they just seem to be a well put together team.
These teams are a combined 3-11 OVER this year, that means 11-3 UNDER. Every game played after September 13th by these teams would be teased under, vague, I know, but it's the truth.
I don't know why but I am still hesitant about MIN and don't like picking against a team that has beat SEA, ARI and blew out two other NFL teams by 18 and 21. Still, I would be picking MIN +10 if I had to make a pick, but I DO LIKE under 53 in this one.
5.) MIA (+3) @ BUF (-3) O/U 44
It's a battle for last in the AFC East. Both teams started off 1-0 by playing great defense. The teams have allowed 62 and 68 respectively in the last two games so that's out the window. BUF also won their first matchup 41-14.
MIA is 5-2 ATTS (same as that other Florida team mentioned above), I don't like that. It means they have the potential to be blown out once out of every three games. They've scored 44 and 7 in back to back games. They've allowed 10, 26 and 36 in consecutive games and as I mentioned, allowed 41 in their previous bout with BUF. They're middle of the road in passing, rushing and PPG, pretty average honestly but 2nd to last on 3rd down success. Other than being terrible on 3rd down offense, they also allow the 7th most RuYPG.
BUF is 6-1 ATTS this year, only losing against the NYG when they were 6.5 point favorites and LeSean McCoy was out. Well McCoy is in and I could see him having a big game against this bad rush defense, but word is they are going to split carries. Tyrod Taylor threw for just 109 yards last week, running the ball 28 times instead which will be the formula this week as well. That equates to a shortened game because the clock will be running frequently.
These two teams are 20th and 28th in number of plays run per game. I don't see anything changing here especially on the BUF side against this rush defense. The defenses have been terrible the last two games, but the Bengals and Pats were mixed in their though so I wouldn't be too concerned.
I wouldn't bet either, but take BUF +10 and under 57 if you feel the urge to bet on an AFC east team other than the Pats.
6.) TEN (+8) @ NO (-8) O/U 47.5
These two teams have been heading in opposite directions. TEN won their first game 42-14 and looked great. Since then they have been outscored 145 to 83. NO lost their first three, but in their last three have won them all and put up 110 points.
It appears a new head coach would not make a difference for the poor Titans. This year they're another 5-2 ATTS team. Both games they were favored in they lost by 14+. So as dogs, they're 5-0 ATTS, but they still look very bad. They've amazingly (I am not sure if this has ever happened before), scored a decreasing amount of points in 5 straight games going from. I can almost guarantee no team has scored 13 and decreased their total in the next 3, but they've done it. It's amazing HOW BAD their offense is. Yet they are still averaging more than 4 points MORE than the last place SF 49ers in PPG. It looks like Mariota will return this week, but I don't know if it will make much of a difference. They've scored 14 or less in three of his starts this year. They're -7 in TO differential and the only good stat I could find is that they are the 3rd best PaYPGA defense, but I am guessing being down late doesn't help that number any.
On the opposite side, the Saints are 6-2 ATTS but won their last three straight up and 2-0-1 ATS. Brees has averaged 357 YPG and over 2.5 TDPG in his last 5 (7TDs and 505 Yards helps). I don't expect him to put up 505, but maybe a nice number like 310 in this one. If they get up early enough, maybe something like 275. When they got up 27-0 against the Colts, they punted on their next 5 possessions, I am sure Sean Payton is VERY aware of that and I can see them keeping the foot on the throttle. Their defense is not very good, allowing 282/124/29.3 (PaYPG, RuYPG, PPG) all in the bottom 10 in the league. I expect them to both put up and allow points in this one.
TEN is the first in the league (as far as I can tell) to have 3 losses when TO. That's a big red flag for me. NO on the other hand is 8-0 TO. I think NO big offense trumps TEN bad defense.
If you are ONLY picking one in this game, take NO +5 (if it was +8.5, it would be a much harder decision because +21.5 is a SOLID line). If you want to take the O/U take over 34.5 because Brees and the Saints may have 5 first half TDs, but I would pass on it.
7.) WAS (+14) @ NE (-14) O/U 52
I'm not going to put much time into which team is better, a -14 line says it all, but is also akin to putting a money line bet n the Patriots at home. Teams with a -14 closing lines or better are 89-4 since 2003 in winning the game straight up. I'm going to go out on a limb though and say both NE (-1) and WAS (+27) might not be bad picks, but I like NE (-1) much more. Just an FYI both teams are 7-0 ATTS this year which is why I say either +27 or -1 might not be bad picks.
The only time that a NE game hasn't put up 39 combined points was against the other NFC East team they played with Weeden at QB. I don't think that matters though because WAS has put up at least 10 in every game this year and NE has put up at least 28 in every game this year. So that gets you to 38. They put up the 28 against the 5th best PPG defense in the league, so I am confident against the 17th best, they can put up more especially since the pass game typically can't be disturbed (especially not this year) and WAS run defense is 30th in the league.
No more time wasted - I really like NE (-1) and kind of like NE over 39, I think it should be a lock too but get nervous with the O/U sometimes, take O 39 though if you think WAS can put up a TD, hopefully late.
8.) GB (-3) @ CAR (+3) O/U 46.5
My coworker was telling me that IND (his team) and GB are the only two teams in NFL history to face undefeated teams in back to back games this late in the season. GB had really no chance to win in Denver, down 17-0, got it to 17-10 but just looked very bad against that Denver D. CAR almost blew a lead last week up 17 in the 4th. I was confident GB wouldn't do well against the Den D, but I thought CAR had their game locked down. Vegas isn't dumb and that's why instead of the undefeated being 3 point favorites at home the one loss team is a 3 point favorite.
GB is only lost their last game ATTS this year, going 6-1 on the year. The games Rodgers has had the most trouble with has been against DEN (1st in PaYPG and Sacks), STL (2nd in sacks and 10th in PaYPG) and SEA (2nd in PaYPG and 8th in sacks). The Panthers are 7th in PaYPG and 8th in sacks. I think that's enough to slow him down again this week. However, Rodgers after his last 4 losses, is averaging 3.5 TDs, 320 yards and hasn't thrown a pick (all last year but against 30th 2X, 28th and 14th PaYPG ranked DEF). I expect him to have a slower game here as well which means GB should also struggle.
CAR is 7-0 ATTS this year. Even if they lost by a TD in OT they would have still covered against the Colts. I think that was a nice little wakeup for them. Typically when teams are down in OT it's a nice kick in the pants (most of the time it means you lost). CAR found a way to win the game and in the end that's all that matters. The best way to beat a good QB is to keep him off the field. The Broncos had the ball for 33:27 last game (which based on the league average would be 3rd highest) and beat Rodgers. It also allows for your defense to rest which is key. The best way to keep him off the field is to run the ball which CAR excels at, 1st in the league. GB is 25th in Rushing defense so I see a good match up for Jonathan Stewart in this one as well. They are going to want to run often and well. If CAR can convert on 3rd downs, ideally with runs, they can keep this low scoring and win the game.
In most cases I would always go with GB and over (they're actually 6-1 TU this year) especially teased, but Rodgers last two road games he's put up 17 and 10. CAR is 6-1 TU this year as well which leads me to believe that is a better pick. GB has put up more than 30 twice this year, while CAR has put up more than 30 once. For this game to go over it would have to be 30-30 or higher.
I like CAR +16 (at home I think that's solid) and would pick the under if I had to make a pick but if Rodgers bounces back like he normally does and puts up 3 TDs, 320 yards this game could definitely go over. I would pick Under 59.5 but if CAR can't run the ball and has to go to passing which could lead to picks that could change.
9.) ATL (-7) @ SF (+7) O/U 44.5
The Braves and Giants played a game on August 3rd in which the Braves won 9-8 in 12 innings. Well I don't think it will take 12 quarters, but this game could end up similar.
ATL is 7-1 ATTS this year (that 1 being a tie actually), ATL has lost two divisional games to a 1-5 team and a Jameis lead team. In between they put up a solid 10 spot against the Titans. I don't know where this team is heading. They had a 5 game stretch averaging 32.4 PPG (it was called the start of their season), since they are just putting up 17. That doesn't mix well with a team that put has given up just 15 points at home (one of those games was GB). It seems simple, they struggle in the division, but are fine outside (like Luck, but opposite). I would say Freeman and Jones have a good day because this team gives up a lot of yards and maybe Bryant does also.
SF is 4-3 ATTS this year (THAT IS HORRIBLE). I would say it's a safe bet to bet against them in every game the rest of the year. That'll happen when you put up less than 8 points in half your games. Luckily they've already passed the 1934 Gunners who put up 27 (but they only played 3 games). Now with Gabbert at QB they are starting over and somehow their team got worse according to ESPN. Add to that that Antoine Bethea is out for the year. They're DEF is surprisingly good at home but on the year they are giving up the 5th most pass yards and 8th mos rushing yards.
ATL offense has been bad, SF offense has been bad, SF DEF at home has been good, so 3 out of 4 say there won't be a lot of scoring.
I like two things in this one, ATL +6 and Under 57.5 against normal wisdom, I actually like the under better.
10.) NYG (-3) @ TB (+3) O/U 48
I don't know what kind of games Jameis is trying to play, but I don't like it, I don't like it one bit. He's playing a humble card and I don't think for one bit he is humble. A few weeks back he said "I'm really nobody in this league yet" now he came out and said something else.
NYG are 7-1 ATTS this year. Their one loss was against the Eagles (divisional) in Philly. In those division games, crazy things can happen so I always discount those a little bit even though they're 38% of everyone's season. 49 points helps, but even scoring 7 one game they're 5th in the league in PPG. The Buccs are 6th in allowed PPG. I think this could be a BIG game for ODBJ (maybe not as good as last week, but still good). They have a middle of the road rush DEF but their pass DEF is right around the bottom 3rd in the league. They may get help when Prince returns. It may seem minor, but if he returns it could make a big difference, but I don't see JPP playing this week.
TB is 6-0 ATTS in their last 6. Jameis hasn't thrown a pick in 3 games and has had a passer rating of over 122 in two of those three games. His team has put up 38, 30 and 23 in the last three games as well. Going against a terrible pass defense, I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a decent game. He may even have his first 3oo yard game, but ONLY if Prince is out so something to watch. They're 4th in RuYPG, but going against the 5th best
NYG is 7-1 TO (that darn Philly game again) and TB is 6-1 TO (one being a tie). These two offenses have averaged 29 PPG in their last three. They don't have great defenses, so as long as it's not raining in Tampa (39% chance for Thunderstorms) I expect a high scoring game.
If it's over a 50% chance to rain at any point, don't touch this. If it is under and Prince is back, take NYG +10, if he is out, take TB +16. If under 50% chance to rain, take over 35.
11.) DEN (-5) @ IND (+5) O/U 45
Peyton returns yet again to Indy. Last year he won 31-24, the year before he lost 39-33.
DEN is 7-0 ATTS only losing ATS once this year. Manning has more INTs then TDs. They have the number one scoring and pass combined with the number three rush defense in the league. They also just shut Aaron Rodgers down only allowing him 7 points. They leave me no reason to think they can't shut down Luck also and whatever running game the Colts have. They've only score more than 29 once, but they've allowed 13 or less 4 or more times.
IND is 6-0 ATTS following their first two losses, but the handicappers have adjusted. This is due mostly to their 2nd half adjustments (scoring 38 of their last 44 points in the 2nd half). I'm going to go out on a limb and say CAR laid back a bit after they were up 17 in the 4th but even with Peyton leading the offense, I can bet as competitive as he is, he won't let that DEF do anything to give up a possible lead. IND has very little run game, but without knowing what this new offensive coordinator is going to do it's hard to predict.
DEN is 7-0 TU, IND is 7-1 TU (only losing with another 3 score 4th quarter by Luck). That could all change with this new offensive coordinator coming to Indy.
I hate to keep harping on the new coordinator, but it leaves a lot of uncertainty for me. I 7 and would take under 58 but going to let him get a game under his belt before picking anything. If they do good against DEN then that tells me all I need to know.
12.) PHI (-3) @ DAL (+3) O/U 44.5
As long as Romo is out, bet against them. Typically a home team at anything higher than 14 is a solid pick but avoid it with their terrible backup play.
I would say under 57.5 because Dallas has put up a max of 20 in their last four and their defense has been pretty solid.
Take PHI +10 and under 57.5 if you want to bet but I try to avoid betting on my teams as well as this being an evening divisional game so good to avoid.
13.) CHI (+4) @ SD (-4) O/U 49
This will not be a very good Monday Night game for my money. Both teams seasons are over as far as I'm concerned being in divisions with undefeateds and being very unlikely to make the wild card.
CHI is 6-1 ATTS only losing against ARI in their great little streak they had. Their pass DEF is surprisingly good this year after being almost last, last year. The sacrifice appears to be the rush DEF which is 4th to last in the league. Usually a good pass DEF doesn't go with a poor scoring DEF but they're allowing just under 29 points per game. That combined with Forte being out tells me they do not stand a chance against this aggressive Chargers team.
SD despite being just 2-6 is 7-1 ATTS. They've put up 26 or more in 4 games this year not doing so against highly ranked DEF teams. Keenan Allen is out for the season though, Ladarius Green is questionable but Melvin Gordon is primed to have a big game against this Bad News Bears Rushing D.
CHI is 6-1 TO (being shut out at SEA), SD is 8-0 TO. Bad scoring DEF and Monday Night inflated scoring should lead this over.
Take SD +9 and over 36 for this one.
I REALLY LIKE:
CIN +1.5
CLE/CIN O 32.5
PIT +8.5
OAK/PIT O 35
JAC/NYJ U 53
STL/MIN U 53
NO +5
NE -1
ATL +6
ATL/SF U 57.5
SD +9
CHI/SD O 36
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