Don't Bank On It!

I'm sure if you're reading this blog post that means you have a phone or computer. Typically if you have a phone or computer, you have bills to pay. More than likely, if you have bills to pay, you also have a bank account. This is very important for you to read IF you have a bank account, if you don't you can move directly to my Week 8 Picks although, I must suggest that if you don't have a bank account, you shouldn't be betting.

When is the last time you re-evaluated your banking needs? Most people probably bank with who their parents opened their account with. If not, you probably changed banks when you moved. Each bank has their benefits and downfalls which I will get into, but it is very important to not waste money on banks because some banks CHARGE YOU MONEY for you GIVING THEM MONEY.

I will try and keep this portion as brief as possible, but banks have a few streams of income:
1.) Making loans and earn interest off those loans.
2.) Charging fees for overdrawing, minimum balances and even transferring your money.
3.) They also invest your money to make money.

Banks aren't simply there for you to deposit your money and access if when you need it, but that's what I want from my bank. I don't want them charging fee, I don't want them bothering me, I don't want the selling me anything and I certainly don't want them providing me a mortgage that takes 45-60 days to close when independent companies like Equitable Mortgage can close in less than 30. Instead, I have my banks pay me!

Just this year, I've earned $100 from Citizens Bank, $100 from Huntington, $150 from Chase, $200 from 5/3 and a GREAT $300 from PNC. Each bank has their own stipulations, bill pay, minimum balance or minimum direct deposit to receive your funds. I also regularly bank with Ally, whom I found although they do not have retail locations, for the simplicity of just holding my money (and they have the best interest rate out there), they're my favorite. As you can see, this year alone I've banked with six different banks. I previously have had accounts with National City (now PNC) and CS Bank (now First Merchant's) as well.

THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN CHOOSING YOUR BANK

My first consideration is ALWAYS the fees being charged and this should be yours too. Chase, PNC and 5/3 all have accounts where they can charge you up to $25/month for meeting their requirements on a monthly basis. That means in a year, if you're in the wrong bank account, it can COST YOU $300 per account if you don't have the correct minimum balance, direct deposit or number of debit card swipes. STOP IT, JUST STOP IT! PNC paid me $300 and they took $300 from you so... I guess I should thank you for the money. I do a lot of transferring of funds, so if I accidentally drop below a $1,000 balance in checking one time, I don't want to be charged for it. 

Let me save you the hassle and talk about the best and worst parts of each bank:

5/3 

The Good - Pretty much everything is bad about this bank. They are the ONLY bank I have ever used that charges me money ($3) to transfer from my 5/3 account to an outside account. That is just an absurd fee. In addition, if you're a customer that goes INTO the branch, you are targeted for evening calls when the bankers don't meet their monthly goals (I worked there, I know they do this). One benefit is they have a lot of branches I suppose.

The Bad - See above or check their reviews, only serve a limited region, charge you for EVERY little thing also they didn't check my ID when I closed my account and just gave me a check for my account balance with NO VERIFICATION that I was who I said I was.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $1,500 without Direct Deposit

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Direct Deposit but also no Check Writing (eAccess Account)

Region:

Ally
The Good - They offer one of the best interest rates on money that you want to keep safe but still have access too (their savings account pays as much as Chase's 10 year CD), they offer free checks, for the most part their customer service is excellent, transferring money and their website are both very easy, they have a nice app as well, they have the most accessible ATMs I have found anywhere (from Key West to Seattle, San Diego to Bangor). They also reimburse up to $10/month on non Ally ATMs.

The Bad - They don't have physical branches, so if you need a large sum of money TODAY (more than you can take out of an ATM), sorry - Not going to work, but I have never had an issue with that.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $0

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Don't overdraw account.

Region: (any state in the US)

Chase

The Good - There are A LOT of Chase branches in many different places (they used to be in Speedways too which was really nice) excluding populous states like SC, NC and TN (see map below), they have over 15,000 ATMS, their website is SUPER user friendly, mobile alerts are nice, it's easy to set up bill pays and it's easy to set up external accounts and they have good credit cards to choose from. Lastly, Chase quickpay is a great feature they offer.

The Bad - They are moving towards higher clientele now and don't offer a truly FREE checking account anymore, they are a little too strict on their consumer protection (I've had at least 5 transactions this year turned down because they thought it was fraud and it took 5-10 minutes for them to contact me to verify it was accurate so I had already left the consumer) they changed their credit card rewards and I wasn't grandfathered in so I essentially lost out on $600 in value with this change and wasn't notified of the change.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $1,500 without Direct Deposit

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Direct Deposit of $500 or more (Total Checking)

Region:

Citizen's Bank
The Good - They paid me $100 to open an account.

The Bad - They have an account that has a fee that CANNOT be waived, but it doesn't pay interest, it only offers free designs on checks (Value Checking) so if you are on this, get out of this account NOW! They are only along the eastern seaboard and a lot of those are just ATMs, not physical branches so not very accessible (even those that are seem to be in poor areas like the Kroger on Morse Road).

Lowest Minimum Balance - $2,500 without Direct Deposit

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Direct Deposit (One Deposit Checking)

Region: They don't provide a map, so don't worry with them.

Discover Bank
The Good - They offer an account where you can get cash back up to $120/year.

The Bad - They make it impossible to open up an account online. You click "Open An Account", it takes you to a log in page. You click never registered before, it only works if you have an existing Discover account. The process is ridiculous so I just stopped.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $0

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Don't overdraw account.

Region: Online

First Merchant's Bank (formerly CS Bank)
The Good - When they were CS Bank, they were open from 7 to 7 and on Sundays. They offered a free change deposit machine, free checks and great bonuses for opening up accounts (I am guessing most of this is gone now). They do seem to offer totally free checking accounts, but they might as be an online bank with their lack of accessible branches and ATMs to 90% of America.

The Bad - You can't seem to search for locations or hours online which seems weird, their website seems to have functionality issues, their region seems to be inner Columbus, outer Indianapolis, south Chicago/NW Indiana and spread out in some other random areas.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $0 with eStatements (First eChecking.

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Receive eStatements (First eChecking)

Region: 

Huntington Bank
The Good - They offer a truly free account with their "Asterisk-free Checking". They have branches all over Columbus (if that applies to you).

The Bad - Their non bank account products (credit cards, lines of credit, mortgage, auto loans) aren't the best.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $0

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Don't overdraw account.

Region: Ohio, Florida (2), Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia.

PNC (Purchased National City Oct. '08)
The Good - They have a nice feature with their "virtual wallet" that shows future payments scheduled, other banks like Chase do not offer this feature. They offer accounts with reimbursement of their non ATM fees as well as reimbursement (unlimited) for other banks fees. They offered $300 to open up an account and meet certain requirements which is the best I found. They seem to have a good footprint in populous cities like Chicago, Indy, Cincy, Cbus, Believeland, Pittsburgh, Philly and Atlanta which is roughly 7.5M people in those cities alone.

The Bad - They set you up with three accounts right off the bat, which seems unnecessary. They encourage you to not go into the bank which saves them costs by laying off unnecessary people, but seems less personable.

Lowest Minimum Balance - $0 with $500 Direct Deposit - $500 if no DD

Easiest Fee Avoidance - Don't go into the bank (seriously, if you only use ATMs or mobile banking to make w/d and deposits, you get the monthly fee of $7 waived).

Region:

In summary, I would suggest Ally if you never need immediate access to large sums of money because remember, they refund most of your non-Ally ATM fees. Huntington (as long as they're in your area) for an easy simplistic banking experience without the fees. PNC if you can avoid going into the bank or you can keep at least $500 minimum balance in your checking account.

I would avoid 5/3 at all costs, Chase unless you have a minimum of $1,500 in your checking account at all times and Discover because it was near impossible to set up an account.

2015 Week 8 NFL Picks

Now it's time to BANK SOME MONEY!!!

Last week, I had a very respectable 22-2 record in games picked. I missed the over in ATL/TEN and I missed HOU by 1/2 point because they missed a damn extra point then they went for two at the end of the game because they missed that extra point. Alas, if you picked my favorites you would be 2-0 on the year, betting $120 to win $100 the last two weeks we are plus $200 for the year.

1.) MIA (+9) @ NE (-9) O/U 51.5

Tom Brady has lost 2 out of his last 3 against the Dolphins and he's thrown a pick in 5 of the last 8 games against them. MIA lost by a combined 222-102 in the previous 7 games though. That's all history though, it's based on current team vs. current team. Be cautious though, this is Thursday Night Football, which means division rivalry and with it being so close to Halloween, that means SPOOKY things could be happening.

MIA has won by an astounding 82-36 margin the last two games, the two games with the new head coach. In reality, it is by more than that though because they were up 41-0 at the half against HOU and probably played some weak prevent to allow the 26 points they did. Lamar Miller has back to back 100 yard games and is averaging almost 9 yards/carry over those. NE is only 25th against WRs this year (according to DK) so I wouldn't be surprised if Jarvis picked up some late junk yard, but probably isn't going to make a difference in the game.

Tom Brady has thrown 16 TDs and 1 INT. His season QBR is 113.2. They've scored AT LEAST 28 points and he has thrown for AT LEAST 2 TDs in every game this year. They are 6-0 ATTS. The reason they're so good is they shut down the other team's best offensive weapon. Against the Colts last year, they ran the ball A LOT to keep Luck off the field, against the Jets Ivory only had 41 yards and against MIA they are going to shut down Lamar Miller. They'll take their chances with Tannehill airing it out and probably get a pick or two.

MIA and NE are both 5-1 TO (teased over). MIA has almost gone over by themselves in the last two games though. NE has gone over by themselves in one game this year and their only under was against a putrid Cowboys team with Weeden at the helm. Even then, the 'Boys should have scored a TD to make it 6-0 for NE.

I like NE +4, but thank it's best to avoid the O/U.  I would lean more towards O 38.5 though because I don't think Brady would mind if Garoppolo finished this one up 42-0 with 2 TD's/piece to Edelman, Gronk and Amendola.

2.) DET (+4.5) @ KC (-4.5) O/U 45.5

These two teams have a combined THREE wins. If it's only their third games of the season or so, that's not bad, but they've played a combined 14 games, that's a solid .214 winning %. I am not going to spend too much time on this game based on that alone.

DET has only covered the spread once this year, ATTS though they're 6-1. I expect Stafford and CJ to have a good game against this terrible pass D. I don't even know who the Lions RB is, but since their season is essentially over, I would expect them to try and put up some kind of record for receiving yards so the season isn't a total loss. That means CJ would need more than 336 yards which he fell just short of this week just two years ago. In his last 3 week 8's played, he's put up 125, 129, and 329. I like this even more because I suspect them to be down in this game in the second half.

KC despite winning one more game, has looked equally as bad as the Lions, but in their defense, they've had a brutal schedule. In three straight weeks, they had to play the Broncos (6-0), go to GB (6-0) and go to Cincy (6-0). They beat the Steelers by 10, who beat the Cardinals by 12, so the Chiefs are 22 points better than the Cardinals? But they lost to the Bears by 1, who lost to the Cardinals by 25 so they are somewhere between 26 points worse and 22 points better than the Cardinals. So maybe the transitive property doesn't always work. The Chiefs at home have actually outscored their opponents.

DET and KC are both 6-1 TO despite KC going under in their last three. They've held opponents to 18, 16 and then 13 last week. The Lions offense hasn't been all that solid either, scoring over 19 only once in their last 6 games.

Based on teaser logic, I like DET +17.5, but based on recent play, I like KC +8.5. I wouldn't pick either, but prefer KC over DET in this one. Also based on recent trends, if I had to choose, I would say under 58.5 but think I will avoid both.

3.) MIN (-1.5) @ CHI (+1.5) O/U 42.5

Minnesota is quietly having a pretty solid year, while Chicago has no so quietly (because anything involving Cutler or Chicago is publicized heavily) sitting at 2-4. Both teams have had their ups and downs (MIN more ups, CHI more downs).

MIN lost their opener at SF, Monday Night, only managing a FG early in the 4th quarter. Since then they're 4-1 only losing to the Broncos on a FG (in the final two minutes) who are still undefeated. Beyond that, they're also 5-0 ATS and on the season 6-0 TU (teased under). Teddy has been pretty mediocre (One 300 yard game, One 2 Pass TD game, 5TDs, 4 INTs. The ironic thing is that AP hasn't been all that special the last 3 games (Zero 100 Yard Games, 2 Total TD, 3.9 YPC). The difference is that they've found a way to win for the most part, but at least cover.

CHI has scored 0, they've scored 34.  They've allowed 17 and they've allowed 48. Even being 16.5 favorites, they just bared covered teased 13 in one game and didn't at all in another. That being said, their last three games have been decided by a TOTAL of 6 points. Those teams have a combined 6 wins though. That tells me they stink against the good teams, play well against the bad teams, but MIN is a middle of the road team. I would say they're better than the previous competition though.

As mentioned above, the Vikes are 6-0 TU, while the Bears are 4-1 TU their last 5. You do the math, what's the best pick here?

I will see how the rest shape up, but as of now, I like MIN +10.5 and under 55.5 but would avoid both picks.

4.) TB (+7) @ ATL (-7) O/U 48.5

These two teams have played very differently this year, Atlanta being 6-1, the Buccs being 2-4. This is a divisional game but any typical concerns I have about this game can be thrown out the window. TB is simply not that good.

ATL has played MUCH better at home than on the road. Their last two road games they have a loss and game they only scored 10 points. Matty Ice has thrown 4 picks to 3 TDs in his last three games which is also affecting Julio Jones. His rating has been under 65 in two of those games as well. Their offense has decreased in points the last four games, 48-25-21-10. I DO NOT see that trend continuing, but I am not sure how they score all their points. ATL's defense has looked pretty terrible the prior 6 games, allowing a minimum of 19 in every one of them. I thought coming off of a 10 day rest, they would do better against the Titans, but it wasn't to be. They ARE going to score at least 28 points in this game and I am guessing it comes on the ground mostly. TB has the 4th best rushing offense this year, while ATL has the 2nd best rushing DEF (ATL wins that battle).

TB has been atrocious on defense. They are tied for the highest PPG allowed with the Bears including allowing 31 to the Jags and Redskins, 37 to the Panthers and 35% of the Titans points on the year were scored against the Buccs. On the other end, their offense just isn't that great. They've put up 68 in the last two weeks which is just less than the 72 they put in the previous 4 games combined.

ATL is TO in 6 of 7 games (their last being that one). TB is TO in 5 of 6 games this year, tying on the other one. However, with Atlant's recent offensive trouble and their D against the run (TB's strong suit) I don't see TB scoring many points.

I REALLY like ATL +6 and if you need a pick, take the under 61.5, but I would avoid it because Jameis could see some Crab Legs in the stands and just starting throwing pick 6's like crazy.

5.) NYG (+3) @ NO (-3) O/U 49

These two QB's have a lot more in common than I bet most people know. This is a battle of former Charger #1 draft picks (Eli 1st round, Drew 2nd round) which tells me the Chargers have great taste in QBs. Unfortunately, Rivers hasn't had much of a team around him while these two have combined for 3 Super Bowl Wins. They both have the EXACT same single game high in passing yards at 510. They've both thrown 5 INTs in a game as well. So Chargers - Bad, 510 - Good, Super Bowl - Good, 5 - Bad.

The Giants come into this game winning 4 of their last 5 games. Although in their last two, they lost by 20 to Philly (discounted the margin slightly because it's divisional) and they barely beat a horrendously executing offense of the Cowboys. The Cowboys threw a pick 6, a pick that lead to a FG and a KO returned for a TD. Take away those mistakes and even this shell of a Cowboys team beats the Giants by 10 points. That being said, ATTS they're still 6-1 on the year, which is strong but I am slightly concerned with Odell's Hammy (even though they say he's at full strength), Prince, Cruz and the fact their starting left tackle is still out. Their offense is frankly terrible right now. They put up 1 offensive TD against the Cowboys, the Eagles, beat the 2-5 49ers on a last second TD and earlier in the season could not hold a 4th quarter lead. Frankly their only good win at the time was against the Bills (who just lost to the Jags), so how's that looking? I do expect Eli to put up 300+ though against this terrible pass defense and maybe some good ground numbers against an equally bad rush defense.

The Saints have won 3 out of 4, only losing in Philly against a team that seemingly found their groove winning by a combined 42 that week and the next. They beat the Falcons at home (big divisional game), they beat the Colts (which really needed that win but look bad this year) and they beat a Cowboys team on an 80 yard TD in OT when the Cowboys weren't ready so let's call it two good wins. Brees hasn't put up stellar numbers, 8 TDs, 4 INTs but against the Giants in his career, he has 12 TDs and 2INTs and is 4-1 against them. One weak suit of the Saints is their pass defense, they are allowing almost 280 yards a game, but the Giants only have one real receiver ODBJ so just gotta shut him down. The good news is that the Giants pass defense (especially without Prince) is even worse, they allow 288 through the air/game. I like Brees to also have a big game, just not sure with what receiver. I'll go ahead and say Willie Snead. Also, NO is 4-1 ATS (not the teaser spread, but straight spread) in their last 5.

I'll restate it as if I hadn't said it enough, but I don't typically like betting the O/U on games. However, this game is a little different. NO allows 26 PPG, NY scores 24 PPG, NY allows 22 PPG, NO scores 23 PPG. The O/U is 49.5, teased down to 36.5 which is a 27-10 score or 24-13 even. I would expect this to be done in the 3rd quarter.

I REALLY like the O/U if you can get it at 36, I also really like the Saints +10, but if you can get plus 10.5 they are a MUST take.

6.) SF (+8) @ STL (-8) O/U 40

This SHOULD be a horribly boring game. These two teams are last in PPG, averaging a horrible 14.7 and 18 respective to the lines above. They are also the only two teams averaging less than 300 yards of offense, per game by more than 25 yards. Rivers, Brady and Brees are averaging more yards per game by themselves than these two teams are averaging... AS A TEAM. The only QBs averaging less YPG are Weeden (backup) and Mallett (just kicked off the team as a backup). So more than likely, they'll put up a 60 spot.

San Fran scored 27 one game, their season high. The Pats scored 28 one game, their season low. There's a reason their average O/U is more than 5 points lower per game. Their offense is HORRIBLE. I am surprised they put up 3 against the Seahawks. They're only Hyde had one good game, he's averaged 50 YPG since and .16 TDPG (that's one TD in 6 games). Kaepernick is for someone reason smiling in his picture, it must be because he hasn't thrown any picks in 3 games, after throwing 5 the previous too. Well, the Rams stopped Rodger's streak and as long as Kaepernick isn't pulled, his will too.

The Rams are actually a MUCH better team in my opinion. They're 5-1 ATTS this year. They beat the Seahawks, Arizona AT Arizona and they beat the Browns who may only be 2-5 but have showed signs of life. The point differential on the year is 66 points better than the 49ers. They are THAT much better than the 49ers. That is more than the difference between the 6-1 Falcons and 1-5 Titans (even though they just beat them by 3 points). Gurley has averaged 144 yards his last 3 games, but more impressive in my opinion is his 6.4 YPC. The best single season YPC by a running back in the NFL EVER was Mercury Morris in 1973 at 6.4 YPC. There's a lot of season to be played, but that just tells you how good he's been in the last 3. SF is bottom 3rd of the league in RuYPGA. So expect Gurley early and often in this one. Other than that, the Rams don't have a threat. Kenny Britt has 224 yards on the season as their leader in receiving, that ranks him at 86th, just behind Arian Foster who didn't even play four full games, (also he's a RUNNING BACK) and just behind Alshon Jeffery who has played in just two games. Gurley has a big game, no one else (per normal) does.

The O/U in this game looks obvious. The Rams, teased under would be 6-0 their last 6, while the 49ers would be 4-1 in their last 5. However, the 49ers have allowed 43 and 47 points in two games this year while the Rams put up 34 against the Seahawks, but let's call that a fluke. Even a 24-20 game (which is the 2nd most the Rams have scored and would be the 3rd most the 49ers have scored) puts you under by 9 points.

I like the Rams +5 and if you're hankering for an O/U bet under 53, but this could be like the SEA/STL game where the 41 O/U is gone after 3 minutes in the 4th.

7.) ARI (-4.5) @ CLE (+4.5) O/U 46

At first glance, giving up 4.5 on the road, 5-2 team that has a +96 point differential (despite two losses) versus the "Who's my QB running saga for 17 years", 1st QB may be hurt, 2nd QB may be suspended, 2-5 team that has a -35 point differential looks like a runaway. The Cards have been favored in every game this year and the Browns have only been favored against Oakland... And they lost it. But let's delve deeper.

Arizona has not covered in 3 of their last four, somehow losing by 12 to the Steelers (only because Vick got hurt and Landry played out of his mind) in one of those games. On the year, their ATTS record is still 6-1 which is strong. Their DEF is strong also, they have 3 pick 6's this year and I think either McCown and Johnny (if not suspended) could provide them with another. They've scored with a rush, a reception, an INT and a kick return. I think they do get another pick 6, but I think it might be time for a fumble or punt return for a TD as well.

Cleveland has ATTS covered in their last 6, that's about all the positives I see here. They've allowed an average of 27 PPG in their last 5 including 24 to the aforementioned Rams above. Their offensive line has been TERRIBLE. They're being sacked the 2nd most in the league, 28th in the league in RuYPG and their only 8th in the league in PYPG because they're frequently down late. On the defensive side, they're worst in the league in RuYAPG at 151 with second being 132. They're also 27th in TO differential while the Cards are tied for 4th. Vegas is giving you 4.5 so you do have the teaser at 17.5, but I don't see it happening.

Both teams went SU OVER in their first 5, while Cleveland did in game 6 as well. ARI TO is 7-0, Cleveland TO is 6-0-1. Teased over, it's only 33 points, which ARI has put up 3 times by themselves this year, but I think they run the ball A LOT in this game especially as it's supposed to rain up until kickoff. I actually like the under better on this one. CLE TU is 5-1-1 (two losses really) while ARI TU is 5-1-1.

I really like ARI +8.5 (they better not let me down against another AFC North Team) and despite liking the under better, I think I am going to bet the over 33 since I am going to game, but I would avoid it.

8.) CIN (+1) @ PIT (-1) O/U 48.5

As rules were meant to be broken, undefeateds were meant to fall. As much as I hate Mercury Morris (is that his 2nd mention in this posting??) popping that champagne each year, I don't think this year features an undefeated team either, although an undefeated Super Bowl featuring the Packers vs. the Patriots would be AWESOME! But does it happen here? 

Cincy is having a year for the ages and it's all due to Andy's hair or so I hear. Regardless, Dalton is the reason. He's the only factor I can find that's in the top 10 (that isn't really obscure like 2/3 on 4th down conversions - They've been leading most games what would they need to for on 4th down often?). ATS they are HOT 5-0-1 which means ATTS, they're 6-0. They're also hot over 5-1, TO 6-0. So betting the Bengals and over teased is two guarantees so far this year. But on the flip side, Dalton has lost his last 3 against PIT and is 1-3 in his career at PIT.

Pittsburgh has been very erratic without Big Ben. They beat ARI, but lost to KC. Bad loss, great win. They lead a final second drive to beat San Diego in a game that SD NEEDED BADLY. Depsite that, they're still 4-3 or even better 7-0 ATTS. They've been under in 6 of 7 games this year. However, TO or TU they're 6-1. Big Ben is supposed to be back, but as the Pittsburgh Post Gazette points out, his returns haven't been fantastic after injury - He's only 2-4 in those games, 63 less PaYPG, TD2INT from 1.92 to .85. This tells me he is tough but ALWAYS tries to come back too early. Career he is 16-6 against the Bengals 1.38 TD2INT ratio but 1to1 TD2INT ratio at home against them. They have so many offensive weapons, I am hesitant to bet against the Steelers in a divisional game with Ben returning.

This total is VERY high, the fields going to be wet, it's Sunday at Heinz so it's going to be windy, FGs are going to be missed. Steelers TU or TO are 6-1. Bengals TO are 6-0, TU 5-1. The last totals at Heinz in this matchup have been 44, 50, 23, 42, 30, 30, 37, 34, 48. That means in every matchup, TU would have won. There has NEVER in this matchup in Pittsburgh, been more than 61 points scored which is what would need to be scored in this game to over. In 1985 it was 37, 24 after a scoreless first quarter.

I don't like picking the matchup here because there is just too much uncertainty, but an undefeated team getting points on the road, I think I would pick them if I had to, CIN +14. I REALLY REALLY LOCK OF THE WEEK LIKE UNDER 61.5 though if you can get it, not so much at under 61.

9.) SD (+3) @ BAL (-3) O/U 50.5

This whole year I have been waiting for Baltimore to turn it around, the fact that they're 1-6 is just baffling to me. San Diego is under performing just as much. With the season Rivers is having, the 1st game back that Gates had, Melvin Gordon putting up those numbers, it is just shocking their record. These teams have both put up 33, 33 and 20 this year. Just a fun tidbit for you.

SD has only beat the lowly Lions and Browns this year. ATTS they're 6-1 though. Both of these teams have been terrible on defense this year though. They're allowing 27 (BAL) and 28 PPG which is simply terrible. I expect Rivers to put up a lot of passes, maybe not the 44 he's averaging a game, but a lot nonetheless. I also expect him and two of the three of Keenan Allen/Woodhead/Green to have big receiving games. I like Woodhead though because I expect them to be down late and I expect them to try and shut down Allen, so maybe Woodhead and Green, but Green would be more early in the game probably. Either way, I don't like SD in this one playing a game at 10AM PST. West division teams in the eastern time zone for 1PM games were a combined 19-52 from 07 to 11. I don't care that he's from AL, played in NC, he is on PST now and this will cause an issue with how he plays.

BAL is a pathetic 1-5-1 ATS that coming with a late 4th quarter TD last week. Surprisingly, they've played VERY close to the spread and Vegas finally changed them from being a favorite to underdog last week. So close to the spread that they're actually 7-0 ATTS. Great teams find a way to win, even if they barely do, bad teams find ways to barely lose. That tells me that the Ravens are a bad team.

I don't like the O/U here, because as a rule I simply don't like it, but also because BAL has scored between 13-33 and SD has scored between 14-33. A poor defense against a great offense usually means high scoring, but two poor defenses with two TO prone offenses (both top 10 in the league, means they could have 2-3 red zone TOs and 10 minutes are wasted with no points driving one way then driving back the other). Don't bet it.

I won't be betting either game, but take BAL +10 and over 37.5 if you feel the need, the need for tweed.

10.) TEN (+4.5) @ HOU (-4.5) O/U 43.5

Bovada doesn't currently have a line on this one because of Mariota's uncertainty. I also have uncertainty on betting this one. The only thing I know Tennessee used to be the Houston Oilers, but the Houston Texans are now the Houston football team. Both teams are in the HORRID AFC south (only division worse than the NFC East) which holds a combined record of 8-19. This is reminiscent of the NFC South last year (7-8-1 winning it), AFC West 2011 (Fighting Tebow's beating the Steelers in Round 1 of the playoffs with a 31.6 YPCompletion which is the highest ever for ten attempts) and of course, the NFC West of 2010 (Seattle and Peter Carrol's return to the NFL).

TEN played really well (I supposed) last week, only losing 10-7 to ATL. As I mentioned last week, if they could put up a 1st half FG (which they didn't) that game would maybe go over. Not that 3 points would have made a difference, but each team having 2 INTs really kept the score down. I expect more of the same from TEN here if Zachariah starts. But just pass, pass right now.

HOU had to let a QB go because he couldn't make a chartered flight on time. Their ALL WORLD DEF (facetious, sarcastic, in no way honest) is allowing 28 PPG. Hoyer however is passing for 293 in his last 3 games, but they also lost Foster. Alfred Blue has NOT played well when he's been in. Also Hopkins had his worst game of the year (only 50 receiving yards last week). Their offense is falling apart and their defense hasn't put together a respectable performance since allowing 9 against TB in week 3.

I don't like the OU at all in this because HOU offense sucks so does their defense. TEN offense sucks (now going 4 straight games with decreasing points). I would expect a low scoring affair.

I've said it one way or another at least three times in this game's analysis alone, but pass. If I had to pick I would say take TEN +17.5 (because I don't know if either team gets to 18, but this is a much better pick with Mariota at the helm) and under 60.5 regardless of which person is throwing the PigSkin for either in this battle for Bud Adams legacy.

11.) NYJ (-3) @ OAK (+3) O/U 44.5

This matchup is very intriguing to me. Let's proceed.

The Jets are 6-0 ATTS. They played NE well at NE, leading halfway through the 4th quarter. The only game they never lead was against the Eagles. I honestly am not sure if they lead in this one at one point but they need to get Chris Ivory going if they want to. He had just 41 yards and a 2.4 YPC, his 2nd lowest ever when running at least 13 times (his average RuAPG). I don't think that was so much him being bad, I think it was the Pats focusing on that. If Oakland is smart, they will do the same. This opens up the passing game (OAK weakness) which has been mediocre, but will allow for Marshall and Decker to get some looks, especially if they're down late. I actually really like Decker in this game as a 2nd recevier against a poor pass defense. Keep in mind that OAK started off the year TERRIBLE against the TEs, so Jeff Cumberland may be a VERY DEEP play as he only has 3 receptions on the season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see that doubled in this game.

Oakland is middle of the road in PaYPG, RuYPG (although closer to the bottom) and turnovers. Their downfall is their pass DEF, last in the league. Their upside is their run defense, 3rd in the league. Another upside is them being 5-0 ATTS in their last 5. I think they shut down Ivory and then have to pick a receive to double, probably Marshall. The Jets have a great run defense, so don't expect much from Murray in this one and their pass defense is top 5 also, so don't look to Carr and Cooper either.  Their offense is NOT going to produce at the level it did against BAl and SD (37 points each) but more like the Broncos game where they only scored 10.

Both teams are 5-1 TO, NY is also 5-1 TU while OAK is 4-2 TU. Keep in mind that NY has allowed 20 points or less in 4 games this year and OAK has scored 20 or less in 3 games this year and most of their points are scored in the 1st half. I think the Jets slow down the offense of the Raiders in this one.

Although OAK is 5-0 ATTS, I like the Jets +10 in this one. If you can get the Jets+10.5 they are A LOCK. Despite more of the games going over, the Jets offense being run centric (6th highest % in the league) mixed with the Raiders run defense being stout, I like under 57.5 as well. I wouldn't bet it though because there are better picks out there.

12.) SEA (-6) @ DAL (+6) O/U 41

This matchup is VERY easy for me. I am going to do NO analysis and just give you want you need to know. This may be because I am a Cowboys fan (I guess I did analyze the pick a little).

Seattle + 7, DO NOT touch the O/U but under 54 if you had to pick because Dallas's offense, even with Dez, won't do anything against SEA's D.

13.) GB (-3.5) @ DEN (+3.5) O/U 45.5

I think this will be a GREAT Sunday night game. I just hope after coming back from Cleveland I can have enough energy to watch it. If you think Peyton and Rodgers, most people think TD's, but did you know these two teams are allowing the least PPG in the league 16.8 and 17 respective to the matchup above.

We all know how great GB has been on the offensive side, but their last road game, they only put up 17 points. Rodgers hasn't gone for a calendar month without 300 yards (before Oct. 2015) since Nov. 2012. Now he's going up against the best pass defense in the league? Oh also, you're giving them a FG to start the game. There's a hodge podge at RB, they've had three different leading rushers the last 3 games (Rodgers, Lacy and Starks). Oh by the way, that top pass DEF is also 3rd against the RUN. And you're giving them a FG to start the game? I think people may blindly take Rodgers and the Packers +10 because they look more flashy but bettor beware. When Rodgers has gone against good/serviceable pass defenses this year (top 10 YPG) he averages 248 YPG,  2 TD and .67 INTs. His worst game was against St. Louis and both them and Denver lead the league in sacks with 26 and 23. I still think Rodgers gets a TD or two, he's still Rodgers, but maybe they sneak in a run of a trick play to get it done against this defense, I mean they're still 6-0 ATTS this year.

Manning has more INTs than TDs this year, 10 to 7. He's only averaging 254 YPG. His QBR is 46.4. Yet his team is 6-0. They've done it with DEFENSE.  They lead the league in sacks (mentioned above, Rodgers does not do well when getting sacked a lot), the 3rd lowest QBR and YPA and they've allowed the least amount of passing TDs in the league. Good against the pass, good against the rush and GBs running game will not do a THING against this defense. Like the Packers, they are 6-0 ATTS. I think the Broncos running game wins this one for them. Like the Pats against the Colts last year, keep Rodgers off the field, the Pack are allowing the 6th highest yards per carry and play good defense.

I don't think Rodger's has a Rodger's type game, Pack may put up 17-20 in this one. That means the Broncos would need 39 to lose the TU. TO the Pack are 5-1, DEN is 4-2. TU the Pack are again 5-1, DEN is 6-0. Four years ago in GB (which is also a different animal) this game was 49-23 but Kyle Orton through 3 picks to give GB some easy scoring opportunities. They've only played once H2H the score was 34-14 in '08. All signs point to under.

I think this game is more enjoyable if you don't bet on it and instead just watch these two masterful QBs struggle a little bit, making them seem more human, but if you're betting I take DEN +16.5 and under 58.5. 

14.) IND (+7) @ CAR (-7) O/U 45.5

I wish this game was Sunday night and the GB/DEN game was Monday night. I unfortunately don't think this will be that great of a game but I would LOVE to be surprised.

The Colts come in at 3-4, losing to the Bills, Jets, Pats and Saints. They had a 3 game winning streak, but two of those were with Hasselbeck behind center. So Luck is a terrible, 1-4 this year. They've been down by at least 13 in ever game he has started this year, even in their win. They CANNOT do that against the Panthers. I personally think they have no chance of winning this game but maybe luck will come through #PUN (that was supposed to be lower case because I don't think Luck will come through, but hoping for their sake some luck does like Newton broken ankle, Josh Norman thinks he has a pick 6 but Hilton catches and runs in for a 60 yard TD or maybe even Franklin Gore busts a run longer than his season high of 25 yards. At least get 32 (his age)!

Carolina allows the 2nd least YPA passing, haven't allowed more than 23 this season and their PPGA is like a bell curve, trending down again (9, 17, 2, 23, 23, 16) so by that logic the Colts would score 8-10 points. Newton has 13 Total TDs to only 7 TOs (but 5 in the last two games), but I don't think they need much on the offensive side to win this game, which is good because they don't have a whole lot. Between Kuechly, Norman and dare I say Kurt Coleman (2nd on the team in tackles behind Thomas Davis), I don't see IND's offense doing anything either.

I don't foresee much scoring in the game at all, but it's Monday night, Andrew Luck is turnover prone so I say pass on it, but if Luck doesn't turn the ball over, this should be a low scoring game (I guess that makes sense).

If you want to bet primetime, combine this with the bets on SNF, but hoping your winnings from earlier in the day are enough to make you happy. Take CAR +6 and under 58.5 if you must.

I REALLY LIKE:

NE +4

ATL +6

NYG/NO O 36

SEA + 7

I kinda like:

CIN/PIT U 61

STL +5

ARI +8.5

NYJ +10

Quick Picks Week 7 NFL '15

Well all, I DID NOT steer you wrong last week and I don't intend on steering you wrong this week. The only thing I did wrong last week was not bet much at all on the four team teaser I provided to you. We are 1-0 on teasers for the year.

Teams that are VERY hot are:
The Bengals, The Packers, The Broncos (all 6-0, all on bye weeks), the Panthers and the Pats (both 5-0). The team most likely to lose of them would be the Panthers. They are facing the Eagles who had put up 66 points the last two weeks and the Panthers only good victory frankly has been against the Seahawks who aren't that stellar even at home this year. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it could.

Teams that are VERY cold are the Chiefs (L5), the Titans/Jags (L4) and the Cowboys (L3). The team most likely to get off the schnide is probably the Cowboys. They have an almost must win against the Giants, coming off a bye week with a new QB and the Chiefs are facing a revamped Steelers team, the Titans are facing a Falcons team FUMING at their loss against the Saints and the Jags... Well they're the Jags - They only win when I pick against them in the Eliminator pools.

But enough about wins and losses, let's go over the lines and why you should or shouldn't bet them with my picks to follow keeping in mind that all pick s

1.) SEA (-7) @ SF (+7) O/U 42.5
This is Thursday night football which means its a divisional game, which means anything can happen (see 5-0 ATL vs. 1-4 NO for further explanation of this).

SEA is 1-4-1 ATS, but on the 13 point teaser they're 6-0 so they seem like a strong bet. Their biggest loss is by 10 @ the Packers (side note, the 49ers AREN'T the Packers).

SF is a little more respectable, 3-3 ATS, but on a 13 point teaser, they're 4-2. Typically if you lose two games, especially back to back games on a 13 point teaser, you're considered volatile and a dangerous bet. Both games were on the road against the Steelers and Cardinals who were playing some STRONG football at the time.

As mentioned previously, I don't like picking the O/U and only do when I am pretty confident. On another bet it cost me $220 that WAS blocked a punt for a TD against the Jets, so that is my reasoning right there. SEA has had total scores as high as 65 and as low as 23 so far this year. The 49ers have had as low as 20 (against the Packers somehow) and as much as 61. There is too much volatility in this one.

If I had to pick, I would pick SEA +6 and under 55.5 but I say pass.

2.) BUF (-4) @ JAC (+4) O/U 41.5
These are two teams that have not lived up to expectations so far this year (and that's saying a lot for the Jags). They're O/U wins was 5.5, I only bet $6 on the under there. The Bills were supposed to have the best defense since the Seahawks of '12, '13, & '14 (not so much '15). But you have Mario Williams complaining about dropping into coverage, Rex Ryan not sticking to what he did for the NYJ and now Mario's brother Kyle is doubtful against the Jags. All in all, not that special.

BUF is one of those teams that really tickles that autistic bone in my body.  They are 3-3 ATS, going W/L/W/L/W/L, they are also exhibit that same pattern SU. So if they win the game, they cover, if they lose the game, they don't. I think the Bills get up big, 10-17 points at some point in this game, but a late prevent defense may let JAC back in it but definitely not in it enough to win by 10 or more.

JAC is just not a very good team. They snuck out a last second win against a terrible MIA team, then lost by 34 the following week in NE. They've played 3 straight road games before last week, covering the spread once against a backup QB, now they head to London where they are 0-2 and they have been outscored 73-27 the last two years (yes, that is just two games). I don't think JAC's poor offense (2nd worst in the league among teams playing 6 games) combined with JAC's poor defense (2nd worst in the league among teams playing any number of games) allows for them to cover even +17, but definitely not +4.

Due to JAC's defense allowing, 20, 20, 51, 16, 38, 31 I expect this to go over, but I don't feel comfortable not knowing enough about EJ Manuel at the QB position.

If I had to pick, I would take BUF +9 and over 28.5, but with a backup QB I say pass.

3.) TB (+3.5) @ WAS (-3.5) O/U 43
This really couldn't be much more of an even matchup, with an even matchup, it could go either way, if it goes either way, I don't want any part of it. Usually you get 3 points for home field advantage which means they think WAS is a 1/2 point better team. Combined their O/U and ATS records are 10-12.

TB is 2-3 ATS this year, 3-2 O/U. Jameis came out telling defenses to not worry about him (I think he's trying reverse psychology or something). They've allowed 19 twice, 37, 38 and 42.

WAS is 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U. Kirk Cousins sucks. They've scored as little as 19 and as much as 24 - They are pretty freaking consistent.

I am guessing the Redskins score something like 22 points and then TB scores 16 or some other weird number.

If I had to pick, I would go TB +16.5 and under 56 but a DEFINITE pass.

4.) ATL (-4.5) @ TEN (+4.5) O/U 47
TEN started off the season roaring, the last two Heisman winners squaring off, #1 vs. #2 pick, Jameis faltered down 14-0 in just over 3 minutes into his NFL career and everyone except Florida was ecstatic for the crab stealing fool was a bust. Since that point, the Titans have been not so good. While the Falcons were having a year for the ages before their bust against the Saints Thursday night. Typically, if you can get 17.5 that's a strong line and I would say go with it, but let me think out some thoughts below and see where we stand.

ATL is 4-2 ATS, losing their last two and actually they would have tied last week on their 13 point teaser, so they are 5-1 ATTS (Against the Teaser Spread), remember a tie on a sweetheart teaser is a loss. They are the much healthier team in this battle as well, 1 probable vs. 3 DTD, 3 probables and 1 Q (who happens to be their QB). Also they are playing a non-divisional game and I think they come to play. They don't do it by passing though, the Titans have only allowed 184 yards/game in the air but they haven't faced strong throwing QB's either, so take it for what it's worth.

TEN is 1-3 ATS their last 4, allowing 29 PPG, against offenses that typically aren't scoring a whole lot (MIA scored 14 back to back weeks prior to 38, Colts put up 16 and 7 to bookend the Titans game of 35, Browns put up 10 and 20 around their 28) and don't even know who their starting QB is going to be.

With TEN horrid defense and ATL fairly solid offense, I can see this being a high scoring game, but I wouldn't bet the O/U because I feel that TEN might not be able to push it over enough.

Teaser wisdom says to take +17.5, especially against a team coming off a 10 point loss to a 1-4 team, but I like ATL at +8.5. Again, I wouldn't bet the O/U, but I would say over 34 should be a solid bet as long as TEN can kick a FG in the first half (because I don't see them kicking any in the 2nd half down to ATL big) and maybe put up a junk TD late.

5.) NO (+5) @ IND (-5) O/U 52
Since 2003, when the line has been 52, the average score has been 52.9 according to TeamRankings over a 14 game stretch which is a decent sample size. When the line drops to 51.5 the average score is 57.6.

NO has covered 3 of their last 4 games and gone O/U alternating their last 6, so this one should be an over by that logic. Their ATTS record would be 4-2. That's a little risky for my biscuits, even if they are hitting their groove it may appear. I think Rex Ryan could tear apart Andrew Luck in this game though because he wants to prove last week wasn't a fluke. The Saints are VERY healthy, no one appearing on the injury report thus far. They have a trio of running backs to shoulder the load, they're playing in a dome which Drew very much likes (11 pt higher rating, .8 more YPA, .617 vs. .542 winning %.) and they're coming off of a nice victory 

The Colts have gone over in 3 of their last 4 and put up 27, 27, 16 and 35. Luck has only been back one game, but it was a LEAPS AND BOUNDS improvement over his previous Pats matchups. In addition, they held close to them the whole game the only being down 13 once and never more than 7 at the end of a quarter and that is a GOOD Patriots team. Oddly enough, I think that loss is where they're turning their season around for the good.

Both teams are finding their offensive groove and they are 18th and 28th defensively in PPGA so it SHOULD be a high scoring affair, but you never really know.

Again, the logic points to taking NO +18, but the Colts +8 is a strong line too. At home, only one game up in their division, Saints coming off a big win (let down game to follow) I think IND pulls this one out. I REALLY like Colts +8, but I think over 39 is a strong number too, not super confident though because 24-14 is a pretty common score and that puts you under. Take the Colts +8.

6.) MIN (-3) @ DET (+3) O/U 44.5
This game is a very tough one to determine. There are a lot of injuries on both sides. Seven players total are either day to day, questionable or out. 

The Lions are just 1-5 ATS, but with the 13 points that improves to 5-1. Their QB is 10/9 TD/INT. They're 26th in rush defense, which is the Vikings strong suit. DET should have beat Seattle and I was looking for a great effort against the Cardinals, but they lost by 25 in that game. It's hard to say if the Lions have turned around their offense, despite being 6th in the league, Chicago has a terrible pass defense, their first three games they were down by at least 15 in the 4th so teams weren't throwing, the Chiefs don't throw much anyways and then Stafford came in and through for over 400 against them. I don't think Stafford is magically back just yet even against a middle of the road Vikings pass D.

The Vikings are actually 4-0 ATS in their last four. Their QB is 3/4 TD/INT which is horrid though and he's actually had two games of 0TDs and 1 INT, I just don't get it. Against top 10 rush defenses, AP is averaging 57 yards/carry, against the other two teams, 130/game. Minnesota has amazingly gone under in EVERY game this year. If they feed the ball to AP they should have no problem covering a +10 spread. They're only allowed 16.6 PPG so by that stat if they score a TD, they'll cover. Against a team allowing 28.7 PPG, I don't think that will be an issue.

As much as the odds say to pick the under, 57.5 is a lot of points, 34 - 23 and you're solid, the Vikes scored 26 against them last time while the Lions scored 37 last week, that puts me at 63. I think over 31.5 is actually a better pick, but I am staying away from that also because Vikes have had totals of 23 and 26 already this year.

I likes the Vikes at +10, I don't like either pick here for the O/U but I would say over 31.5 is a better pick.

7.) PIT (TBD) @ KC (TBD) O/U TBD
As you can see, this game is still TBD as the Steelers determine who their QB is, but I am guessing it will be Landry Jones because Big Ben is listed as out and Vick is questionable, less because of being injured and more because he's not that good I think.

The Steelers, even with backups, are 4-0-2 ATS this year, which means they are 6-0 teased 13. I don't like betting on uncertainty and most places you can't even bet on this right now anyways. That being said, if Landry is the starter, I expect the spread to be about -3 to -4 and I like the Steelers teased 13, but if it's more than that or Landry's isn't starting, I would say avoid it.

The Chiefs are 1-5-0 ATS, amazingly teased 13 they are also 6-0 ATS. They have a backup RB in (Knile Davis - 2.5 YPA), who had one great game last year (16 for 107 - 6.7 YPA) and one decent game (32 for 132 - 4.1 YPA). I don't think they can run the ball now, I know they can't pass the ball and they've scored 28, 21, 17, 10 in their last four, decreasing in points for four straight games is USUALLY not a good trend especially when the team you're playing has allowed a decreasing amount of points in 3 straight (oh and before that, they only allowed 6).

The opening O/U was 44.5 but I don't see an available one now. I expect that to drop closer to 42 or 41 because despite how terrible KC is they are still playing at home which is one of the loudest places in the NFL to play. Even for a top tier QB (see Brady last year), playing in a stadium that can produce sounds as long as a Jet Engine, that's tough.

I don't like betting on speculation, but if I had to choose I would say PIT (+8 or more) and under (53.5 or higher).

8.) CLE (+7) @ STL (-7) O/U 41.5
This is yet another scenario I don't like betting on, two teams under .500 that even though it's only the 7th week of the season, are probably out of the playoffs. 

Cleveland is already four games back of Cincinnati, who is starting hot, another 2 games back of Pittsburgh, who is going to put on a SHOW when Ben comes back and only ahead of the Ravens who are apparently just lost without Suggs and Torrey Smith. They are pushing the envelope ATS though, they're 3-2-1, but teased 13, they're 5-0 in their last 5.

St. Louis is only 2.5 games back and 2-0 in their division, but they still have to go TO Seattle and TO Cincy. Todd Gurley is turning it on, but without any real pass threat (Kenny Britt leading the team with 183 yards and 11 receptions, 4 players have more yards than that in a single game this year) their offense is just horrible. They are of only two teams to put up less than 100 this year and they may not get to 100 this week either because they need 17 points which they have only score twice out of five tries this year. They re 2-3 ATS, but 4-1 ATTS not covering as a favorite.

Cleveland has gone over in every game this year, with no tease at all. In St. Louis's highest O/U total of 48, the teams scored a combined 18 points. Teasing 13 you only need 29 points out of these two, in a dome in perfect conditions, I would consider betting the over there.

I can't strongly condone betting either of these teams, but given the records, I think Cleveland +20 is strong, also the over 28.5.

9.) HOU (+4.5) @ MIA (-4.5) O/U 44.5
This is comparable to the above matchup in my opinion. So let me stop you here and say you may want to avoid this, but I like it.

Houston plays good one out of every 3 games (it also helps they played crap teams from Florida - OH WAIT - HERE'S ANOTHER ONE! Their two wins, also their two covers were against TB and JAC. Teasing, they would be 5-1 (they got smoked against ATL), ATS they're 2-4. Hoyer has actually looked pretty strong in the last 3 games, 8TDs, 1 INT, 279/YPG. I think both Hoyer, Hopkins and HFoster (had to make it the triple H's) all have good games.

The Dolphins are a hard team to figure out, their coach is out, their new coach comes in and they destroy the Titans getting 6 sacks, but Mariota has been sacked the top 5 most in the league this year. Also, MIA is 2nd worst in the league against the run. ATS they're 2-3, 4-1 teased 13. 

Going over teased 13, HOU is 5-1, MIA is 4-1. The odds are 2/3 that this goes over teased 13 based on previous outcomes but I want to throw out the HOU/TB game because Hoyer wasn't their QB increasing the odds to 4/5. I like those odds.

I honestly really like HOU +17.5 and over 31.5 but based strictly on principles, I am avoiding the O/U. The money line bet of +170 - +190 for Houston might not be a bad option either, but I always recommend taking the line for an underdog over taking the money line not enough risk for my reward.

10.) NYJ (+10) @ NE (-10) O/U 48
Divisional games are always tough because there's bad blood, emotions can get out of hand, unnecessary personal fouls are called, leading to first downs they shouldn't have had, leading to scores they shouldn't have had. This matchup especially has been great in the past. Five of the last six games have been decided by 3 points or less, which is AWESOME. The Pats one loss was by 3 in OT at New York. The only thing that's really changed is the coach of the Jets and that's enough for me.

The Pats are 5-0 ATTS, covering a reverse teaser (that's taking 6-7 points AWAY FROM THEM ON THE LINE) at a clip of 3-2 which is absolutely ridiculous. That means instead of winning by 14 against the Jags, they needed to win by at least 20, they won by 34. They've put up 28 points in every game this year and Tom Brady also just through his first pick of the year.

The Jets have been great at covering the spread, ATTS, they're 5-0. The problem is they don't have Rex anymore and I am not sure Todd Bowles really has a great grasp on this rivalry. He was the DC in Arizona, some secondary coaching (the NYJ in 2000), but this is something different. The Pats are going to shut down Ivory, they're going to shut down Marshall and that leaves you with relying on Fitzy who is 9/7 TD/INT this year. Even though he played just 33 miles away from here, his record against NE is 1-6 with his one win coming thanks to a 17 point 4th quarter and 28 yard FG as time expired. I don't see that happening again.

The Pats are 4-1 over teased 13 which is pretty amazing considering their lines are always so high (lowest being 45, highest being 54). The Jets have the same record, but their lines are usually much lower (38-47) I am going to avoid the OU on this because I feel this could get bad, 34-0???? And you lose. So don't bet that nonsense.

I really like the Pats +3 though, so bet that and win yourself some money.

11.) OAK (+3.5) @ SD (-3.5) O/U 46.5
I don't know much about these teams, other than it appears Oakland is over performing (they are supposed to be good next year) and SD is underperforming (losing to Vick in a pretty must win game to turn around your season casts your whole season as a disappointment). Both the Chargers and Raiders season will probably end the first week of January the way things are going now, but this could be a pivotal game (not likely though).

SD is 5-1 ATTS which is a respectable record, but they're an up and down team. They've been favored in half and underdogs in half. The makes them a middle of the road team and I get a little uneasy betting on those teams. Rivers could throw for 503 (GB) or for 241 (CIN). Keenan Allen and Eric Weddle (their top WR and Defensive leader) are both questionable. Do not expect much from Gordon either as the Raiders allow the 5 least RushYPG which is saying something when you're losing most games.

OAK is 4-0 ATTS in their last four after that game against the Bengals. They've won by 4 and 7, lost by 2 and 6, most games have been very close. Derek Carr has looked strong, 8/3 TD/INT and so has Amari Cooper, hell for that matter so has Latavius Murray. I expect both Cooper and Carr to have good games against the Chargers last ranked pass defense.

OAK is 4-1 over teased, SD is 6-0 teased over this year. Logic points to over 33.5 but with the Raiders only putting up 10 last week, I don't like this at all.

I think the OAK +16.5 is an okay pick, but I really like them if they get to +17.5 I would hold on that pick and pass on the O/U.

12.) PHI (+3) @ CAR (-3) O/U 45.5
All I have on this series is that the Eagles won last year 45-21 in Philly.

The Eagles are be 5-1 ATTS, Dallas being their only loss. They've scored least 20 in 5 of their 6 games, but still they're only 3-3. They've blown close games against the Falcons and Redskins (yikes). The last two games however, they've won by a combined score of 66-24 against a bad NO team and a good NYG team (even losing the TO battle by 1). So have they got their game together? Well it depends if they get a first down when they first get the ball. If they go 3 and out, they can't get that momentum going that they need to sustain a drive, their 3 and out % is the 7 worst in the league which DOES NOT bode well for them.

The Panthers have one good win, against SEA who looked like they got their crap together, but last night they showed they did and I expect them to make a run moving forward. Cam's been up and down, somewhere between 124 and 315 passing yards in every game this year and already has 3 games with both a passing and rushing TD. Carolina is middle of the road in both rush and pass defense, but top 10 in PPG allowed which is the big reason they're 5-0 also the fact that they're tied with the league lead in TO differential at +6. Also they're 5-0 ATTS.

PHI is 5-1 over teased, CAR is 5-0 over teased. I still don't like the over though. I think PHI has trouble running the ball leading to more 3 and outs, I can see some FG's getting kicked in the red zone and I just don't feel comfortable with it.

I like CAR +10 (prefer it at +10.5 though), and I wouldn't pick it but would choose under 58.5 if someone said hey, you, pick something.

13.) BAL (+10) @ ARI (-10) O/U 48
This is an easy one to pick, but I also thought ARI @ PIT and STL @ ARI were.

BAL is not playing well, they've gone 0-5-1 ATS this year, but ATTS they're actually 6-0, crazy. They're tied for 27th in the league in TO differential, TOs worse than ARI is. They allowed Josh McCown 457 yards through the air, 60 more than he's had in 11 years and 383 to Dalton, but hey, THEY SHUT DOWN VICK! Terrell Suggs isn't in the linebacking core for them and it's showing.

ARI is 4-2 ATS, but ATTS they're 5-1 (screwing me last week against PIT). They somehow managed only 13 points after putting up 42+ in 3 of the previous 4 games. They bounce back in a BIG way this week. Carson Palmer throws for a modest 335 but 4 TDs. Fitz, Brown and Floyd spread the wealth and each has a TD, hell Andre Ellington also has a receiving TD. Depsite holding many big late leads, they're still only allowing the 9 least PaYPG. They have some real gunners on the defensive side. I think they get a pick 6 or fumble return for a TD as well. So that's 4 passing TDs, 1 DEF TD and they may get a special teams TD, but that seems like a lot. Unfortunately, Baltimore may not score enough to push it over.

ARI is 6-0 over teased, BAL is 5-1 over teased. I actually like the over, but it could end 35-0 for a big fat tie, which is a teaser loss.

Take the ARI +3 points and if you're feeling risky, take the over 35, but if they're up 24-7 in the 4th, there may not be another point scored.

Summary of picks for those who are lazy and the green highlight isn't enough.

REALLY LIKE:
ARI + 3
ATL + 8.5
PATS +3
IND +8

KINDA LIKE:
CAR +10
OAK +16.5
MIN +10
HOU + 17.5