Well all, I DID NOT steer you wrong last week and I don't intend on steering you wrong this week. The only thing I did wrong last week was not bet much at all on the four team teaser I provided to you. We are 1-0 on teasers for the year.
Teams that are VERY hot are:
The Bengals, The Packers, The Broncos (all 6-0, all on bye weeks), the Panthers and the Pats (both 5-0). The team most likely to lose of them would be the Panthers. They are facing the Eagles who had put up 66 points the last two weeks and the Panthers only good victory frankly has been against the Seahawks who aren't that stellar even at home this year. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it could.
Teams that are VERY cold are the Chiefs (L5), the Titans/Jags (L4) and the Cowboys (L3). The team most likely to get off the schnide is probably the Cowboys. They have an almost must win against the Giants, coming off a bye week with a new QB and the Chiefs are facing a revamped Steelers team, the Titans are facing a Falcons team FUMING at their loss against the Saints and the Jags... Well they're the Jags - They only win when I pick against them in the Eliminator pools.
But enough about wins and losses, let's go over the lines and why you should or shouldn't bet them with my picks to follow keeping in mind that all pick s
1.) SEA (-7) @ SF (+7) O/U 42.5
This is Thursday night football which means its a divisional game, which means anything can happen (see 5-0 ATL vs. 1-4 NO for further explanation of this).
SEA is 1-4-1 ATS, but on the 13 point teaser they're 6-0 so they seem like a strong bet. Their biggest loss is by 10 @ the Packers (side note, the 49ers AREN'T the Packers).
SF is a little more respectable, 3-3 ATS, but on a 13 point teaser, they're 4-2. Typically if you lose two games, especially back to back games on a 13 point teaser, you're considered volatile and a dangerous bet. Both games were on the road against the Steelers and Cardinals who were playing some STRONG football at the time.
As mentioned previously, I don't like picking the O/U and only do when I am pretty confident. On another bet it cost me $220 that WAS blocked a punt for a TD against the Jets, so that is my reasoning right there. SEA has had total scores as high as 65 and as low as 23 so far this year. The 49ers have had as low as 20 (against the Packers somehow) and as much as 61. There is too much volatility in this one.
If I had to pick, I would pick SEA +6 and under 55.5 but I say pass.
2.) BUF (-4) @ JAC (+4) O/U 41.5
These are two teams that have not lived up to expectations so far this year (and that's saying a lot for the Jags). They're O/U wins was 5.5, I only bet $6 on the under there. The Bills were supposed to have the best defense since the Seahawks of '12, '13, & '14 (not so much '15). But you have Mario Williams complaining about dropping into coverage, Rex Ryan not sticking to what he did for the NYJ and now Mario's brother Kyle is doubtful against the Jags. All in all, not that special.
BUF is one of those teams that really tickles that autistic bone in my body. They are 3-3 ATS, going W/L/W/L/W/L, they are also exhibit that same pattern SU. So if they win the game, they cover, if they lose the game, they don't. I think the Bills get up big, 10-17 points at some point in this game, but a late prevent defense may let JAC back in it but definitely not in it enough to win by 10 or more.
JAC is just not a very good team. They snuck out a last second win against a terrible MIA team, then lost by 34 the following week in NE. They've played 3 straight road games before last week, covering the spread once against a backup QB, now they head to London where they are 0-2 and they have been outscored 73-27 the last two years (yes, that is just two games). I don't think JAC's poor offense (2nd worst in the league among teams playing 6 games) combined with JAC's poor defense (2nd worst in the league among teams playing any number of games) allows for them to cover even +17, but definitely not +4.
Due to JAC's defense allowing, 20, 20, 51, 16, 38, 31 I expect this to go over, but I don't feel comfortable not knowing enough about EJ Manuel at the QB position.
If I had to pick, I would take BUF +9 and over 28.5, but with a backup QB I say pass.
3.) TB (+3.5) @ WAS (-3.5) O/U 43
This really couldn't be much more of an even matchup, with an even matchup, it could go either way, if it goes either way, I don't want any part of it. Usually you get 3 points for home field advantage which means they think WAS is a 1/2 point better team. Combined their O/U and ATS records are 10-12.
TB is 2-3 ATS this year, 3-2 O/U. Jameis came out telling defenses to not worry about him (I think he's trying reverse psychology or something). They've allowed 19 twice, 37, 38 and 42.
WAS is 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U. Kirk Cousins sucks. They've scored as little as 19 and as much as 24 - They are pretty freaking consistent.
I am guessing the Redskins score something like 22 points and then TB scores 16 or some other weird number.
If I had to pick, I would go TB +16.5 and under 56 but a DEFINITE pass.
4.) ATL (-4.5) @ TEN (+4.5) O/U 47
TEN started off the season roaring, the last two Heisman winners squaring off, #1 vs. #2 pick, Jameis faltered down 14-0 in just over 3 minutes into his NFL career and everyone except Florida was ecstatic for the crab stealing fool was a bust. Since that point, the Titans have been not so good. While the Falcons were having a year for the ages before their bust against the Saints Thursday night. Typically, if you can get 17.5 that's a strong line and I would say go with it, but let me think out some thoughts below and see where we stand.
ATL is 4-2 ATS, losing their last two and actually they would have tied last week on their 13 point teaser, so they are 5-1 ATTS (Against the Teaser Spread), remember a tie on a sweetheart teaser is a loss. They are the much healthier team in this battle as well, 1 probable vs. 3 DTD, 3 probables and 1 Q (who happens to be their QB). Also they are playing a non-divisional game and I think they come to play. They don't do it by passing though, the Titans have only allowed 184 yards/game in the air but they haven't faced strong throwing QB's either, so take it for what it's worth.
TEN is 1-3 ATS their last 4, allowing 29 PPG, against offenses that typically aren't scoring a whole lot (MIA scored 14 back to back weeks prior to 38, Colts put up 16 and 7 to bookend the Titans game of 35, Browns put up 10 and 20 around their 28) and don't even know who their starting QB is going to be.
With TEN horrid defense and ATL fairly solid offense, I can see this being a high scoring game, but I wouldn't bet the O/U because I feel that TEN might not be able to push it over enough.
Teaser wisdom says to take +17.5, especially against a team coming off a 10 point loss to a 1-4 team, but I like ATL at +8.5. Again, I wouldn't bet the O/U, but I would say over 34 should be a solid bet as long as TEN can kick a FG in the first half (because I don't see them kicking any in the 2nd half down to ATL big) and maybe put up a junk TD late.
5.) NO (+5) @ IND (-5) O/U 52
Since 2003, when the line has been 52, the average score has been 52.9 according to TeamRankings over a 14 game stretch which is a decent sample size. When the line drops to 51.5 the average score is 57.6.
NO has covered 3 of their last 4 games and gone O/U alternating their last 6, so this one should be an over by that logic. Their ATTS record would be 4-2. That's a little risky for my biscuits, even if they are hitting their groove it may appear. I think Rex Ryan could tear apart Andrew Luck in this game though because he wants to prove last week wasn't a fluke. The Saints are VERY healthy, no one appearing on the injury report thus far. They have a trio of running backs to shoulder the load, they're playing in a dome which Drew very much likes (11 pt higher rating, .8 more YPA, .617 vs. .542 winning %.) and they're coming off of a nice victory
The Colts have gone over in 3 of their last 4 and put up 27, 27, 16 and 35. Luck has only been back one game, but it was a LEAPS AND BOUNDS improvement over his previous Pats matchups. In addition, they held close to them the whole game the only being down 13 once and never more than 7 at the end of a quarter and that is a GOOD Patriots team. Oddly enough, I think that loss is where they're turning their season around for the good.
Both teams are finding their offensive groove and they are 18th and 28th defensively in PPGA so it SHOULD be a high scoring affair, but you never really know.
Again, the logic points to taking NO +18, but the Colts +8 is a strong line too. At home, only one game up in their division, Saints coming off a big win (let down game to follow) I think IND pulls this one out. I REALLY like Colts +8, but I think over 39 is a strong number too, not super confident though because 24-14 is a pretty common score and that puts you under. Take the Colts +8.
6.) MIN (-3) @ DET (+3) O/U 44.5
This game is a very tough one to determine. There are a lot of injuries on both sides. Seven players total are either day to day, questionable or out.
The Lions are just 1-5 ATS, but with the 13 points that improves to 5-1. Their QB is 10/9 TD/INT. They're 26th in rush defense, which is the Vikings strong suit. DET should have beat Seattle and I was looking for a great effort against the Cardinals, but they lost by 25 in that game. It's hard to say if the Lions have turned around their offense, despite being 6th in the league, Chicago has a terrible pass defense, their first three games they were down by at least 15 in the 4th so teams weren't throwing, the Chiefs don't throw much anyways and then Stafford came in and through for over 400 against them. I don't think Stafford is magically back just yet even against a middle of the road Vikings pass D.
The Vikings are actually 4-0 ATS in their last four. Their QB is 3/4 TD/INT which is horrid though and he's actually had two games of 0TDs and 1 INT, I just don't get it. Against top 10 rush defenses, AP is averaging 57 yards/carry, against the other two teams, 130/game. Minnesota has amazingly gone under in EVERY game this year. If they feed the ball to AP they should have no problem covering a +10 spread. They're only allowed 16.6 PPG so by that stat if they score a TD, they'll cover. Against a team allowing 28.7 PPG, I don't think that will be an issue.
As much as the odds say to pick the under, 57.5 is a lot of points, 34 - 23 and you're solid, the Vikes scored 26 against them last time while the Lions scored 37 last week, that puts me at 63. I think over 31.5 is actually a better pick, but I am staying away from that also because Vikes have had totals of 23 and 26 already this year.
I likes the Vikes at +10, I don't like either pick here for the O/U but I would say over 31.5 is a better pick.
7.) PIT (TBD) @ KC (TBD) O/U TBD
As you can see, this game is still TBD as the Steelers determine who their QB is, but I am guessing it will be Landry Jones because Big Ben is listed as out and Vick is questionable, less because of being injured and more because he's not that good I think.
The Steelers, even with backups, are 4-0-2 ATS this year, which means they are 6-0 teased 13. I don't like betting on uncertainty and most places you can't even bet on this right now anyways. That being said, if Landry is the starter, I expect the spread to be about -3 to -4 and I like the Steelers teased 13, but if it's more than that or Landry's isn't starting, I would say avoid it.
The Chiefs are 1-5-0 ATS, amazingly teased 13 they are also 6-0 ATS. They have a backup RB in (Knile Davis - 2.5 YPA), who had one great game last year (16 for 107 - 6.7 YPA) and one decent game (32 for 132 - 4.1 YPA). I don't think they can run the ball now, I know they can't pass the ball and they've scored 28, 21, 17, 10 in their last four, decreasing in points for four straight games is USUALLY not a good trend especially when the team you're playing has allowed a decreasing amount of points in 3 straight (oh and before that, they only allowed 6).
The opening O/U was 44.5 but I don't see an available one now. I expect that to drop closer to 42 or 41 because despite how terrible KC is they are still playing at home which is one of the loudest places in the NFL to play. Even for a top tier QB (see Brady last year), playing in a stadium that can produce sounds as long as a Jet Engine, that's tough.
I don't like betting on speculation, but if I had to choose I would say PIT (+8 or more) and under (53.5 or higher).
8.) CLE (+7) @ STL (-7) O/U 41.5
This is yet another scenario I don't like betting on, two teams under .500 that even though it's only the 7th week of the season, are probably out of the playoffs.
Cleveland is already four games back of Cincinnati, who is starting hot, another 2 games back of Pittsburgh, who is going to put on a SHOW when Ben comes back and only ahead of the Ravens who are apparently just lost without Suggs and Torrey Smith. They are pushing the envelope ATS though, they're 3-2-1, but teased 13, they're 5-0 in their last 5.
St. Louis is only 2.5 games back and 2-0 in their division, but they still have to go TO Seattle and TO Cincy. Todd Gurley is turning it on, but without any real pass threat (Kenny Britt leading the team with 183 yards and 11 receptions, 4 players have more yards than that in a single game this year) their offense is just horrible. They are of only two teams to put up less than 100 this year and they may not get to 100 this week either because they need 17 points which they have only score twice out of five tries this year. They re 2-3 ATS, but 4-1 ATTS not covering as a favorite.
Cleveland has gone over in every game this year, with no tease at all. In St. Louis's highest O/U total of 48, the teams scored a combined 18 points. Teasing 13 you only need 29 points out of these two, in a dome in perfect conditions, I would consider betting the over there.
I can't strongly condone betting either of these teams, but given the records, I think Cleveland +20 is strong, also the over 28.5.
9.) HOU (+4.5) @ MIA (-4.5) O/U 44.5
This is comparable to the above matchup in my opinion. So let me stop you here and say you may want to avoid this, but I like it.
Houston plays good one out of every 3 games (it also helps they played crap teams from Florida - OH WAIT - HERE'S ANOTHER ONE! Their two wins, also their two covers were against TB and JAC. Teasing, they would be 5-1 (they got smoked against ATL), ATS they're 2-4. Hoyer has actually looked pretty strong in the last 3 games, 8TDs, 1 INT, 279/YPG. I think both Hoyer, Hopkins and HFoster (had to make it the triple H's) all have good games.
The Dolphins are a hard team to figure out, their coach is out, their new coach comes in and they destroy the Titans getting 6 sacks, but Mariota has been sacked the top 5 most in the league this year. Also, MIA is 2nd worst in the league against the run. ATS they're 2-3, 4-1 teased 13.
Going over teased 13, HOU is 5-1, MIA is 4-1. The odds are 2/3 that this goes over teased 13 based on previous outcomes but I want to throw out the HOU/TB game because Hoyer wasn't their QB increasing the odds to 4/5. I like those odds.
I honestly really like HOU +17.5 and over 31.5 but based strictly on principles, I am avoiding the O/U. The money line bet of +170 - +190 for Houston might not be a bad option either, but I always recommend taking the line for an underdog over taking the money line not enough risk for my reward.
10.) NYJ (+10) @ NE (-10) O/U 48
Divisional games are always tough because there's bad blood, emotions can get out of hand, unnecessary personal fouls are called, leading to first downs they shouldn't have had, leading to scores they shouldn't have had. This matchup especially has been great in the past. Five of the last six games have been decided by 3 points or less, which is AWESOME. The Pats one loss was by 3 in OT at New York. The only thing that's really changed is the coach of the Jets and that's enough for me.
The Pats are 5-0 ATTS, covering a reverse teaser (that's taking 6-7 points AWAY FROM THEM ON THE LINE) at a clip of 3-2 which is absolutely ridiculous. That means instead of winning by 14 against the Jags, they needed to win by at least 20, they won by 34. They've put up 28 points in every game this year and Tom Brady also just through his first pick of the year.
The Jets have been great at covering the spread, ATTS, they're 5-0. The problem is they don't have Rex anymore and I am not sure Todd Bowles really has a great grasp on this rivalry. He was the DC in Arizona, some secondary coaching (the NYJ in 2000), but this is something different. The Pats are going to shut down Ivory, they're going to shut down Marshall and that leaves you with relying on Fitzy who is 9/7 TD/INT this year. Even though he played just 33 miles away from here, his record against NE is 1-6 with his one win coming thanks to a 17 point 4th quarter and 28 yard FG as time expired. I don't see that happening again.
The Pats are 4-1 over teased 13 which is pretty amazing considering their lines are always so high (lowest being 45, highest being 54). The Jets have the same record, but their lines are usually much lower (38-47) I am going to avoid the OU on this because I feel this could get bad, 34-0???? And you lose. So don't bet that nonsense.
I really like the Pats +3 though, so bet that and win yourself some money.
11.) OAK (+3.5) @ SD (-3.5) O/U 46.5
I don't know much about these teams, other than it appears Oakland is over performing (they are supposed to be good next year) and SD is underperforming (losing to Vick in a pretty must win game to turn around your season casts your whole season as a disappointment). Both the Chargers and Raiders season will probably end the first week of January the way things are going now, but this could be a pivotal game (not likely though).
SD is 5-1 ATTS which is a respectable record, but they're an up and down team. They've been favored in half and underdogs in half. The makes them a middle of the road team and I get a little uneasy betting on those teams. Rivers could throw for 503 (GB) or for 241 (CIN). Keenan Allen and Eric Weddle (their top WR and Defensive leader) are both questionable. Do not expect much from Gordon either as the Raiders allow the 5 least RushYPG which is saying something when you're losing most games.
OAK is 4-0 ATTS in their last four after that game against the Bengals. They've won by 4 and 7, lost by 2 and 6, most games have been very close. Derek Carr has looked strong, 8/3 TD/INT and so has Amari Cooper, hell for that matter so has Latavius Murray. I expect both Cooper and Carr to have good games against the Chargers last ranked pass defense.
OAK is 4-1 over teased, SD is 6-0 teased over this year. Logic points to over 33.5 but with the Raiders only putting up 10 last week, I don't like this at all.
I think the OAK +16.5 is an okay pick, but I really like them if they get to +17.5 I would hold on that pick and pass on the O/U.
12.) PHI (+3) @ CAR (-3) O/U 45.5
All I have on this series is that the Eagles won last year 45-21 in Philly.
The Eagles are be 5-1 ATTS, Dallas being their only loss. They've scored least 20 in 5 of their 6 games, but still they're only 3-3. They've blown close games against the Falcons and Redskins (yikes). The last two games however, they've won by a combined score of 66-24 against a bad NO team and a good NYG team (even losing the TO battle by 1). So have they got their game together? Well it depends if they get a first down when they first get the ball. If they go 3 and out, they can't get that momentum going that they need to sustain a drive, their 3 and out % is the 7 worst in the league which DOES NOT bode well for them.
The Panthers have one good win, against SEA who looked like they got their crap together, but last night they showed they did and I expect them to make a run moving forward. Cam's been up and down, somewhere between 124 and 315 passing yards in every game this year and already has 3 games with both a passing and rushing TD. Carolina is middle of the road in both rush and pass defense, but top 10 in PPG allowed which is the big reason they're 5-0 also the fact that they're tied with the league lead in TO differential at +6. Also they're 5-0 ATTS.
PHI is 5-1 over teased, CAR is 5-0 over teased. I still don't like the over though. I think PHI has trouble running the ball leading to more 3 and outs, I can see some FG's getting kicked in the red zone and I just don't feel comfortable with it.
I like CAR +10 (prefer it at +10.5 though), and I wouldn't pick it but would choose under 58.5 if someone said hey, you, pick something.
13.) BAL (+10) @ ARI (-10) O/U 48
This is an easy one to pick, but I also thought ARI @ PIT and STL @ ARI were.
BAL is not playing well, they've gone 0-5-1 ATS this year, but ATTS they're actually 6-0, crazy. They're tied for 27th in the league in TO differential, TOs worse than ARI is. They allowed Josh McCown 457 yards through the air, 60 more than he's had in 11 years and 383 to Dalton, but hey, THEY SHUT DOWN VICK! Terrell Suggs isn't in the linebacking core for them and it's showing.
ARI is 4-2 ATS, but ATTS they're 5-1 (screwing me last week against PIT). They somehow managed only 13 points after putting up 42+ in 3 of the previous 4 games. They bounce back in a BIG way this week. Carson Palmer throws for a modest 335 but 4 TDs. Fitz, Brown and Floyd spread the wealth and each has a TD, hell Andre Ellington also has a receiving TD. Depsite holding many big late leads, they're still only allowing the 9 least PaYPG. They have some real gunners on the defensive side. I think they get a pick 6 or fumble return for a TD as well. So that's 4 passing TDs, 1 DEF TD and they may get a special teams TD, but that seems like a lot. Unfortunately, Baltimore may not score enough to push it over.
ARI is 6-0 over teased, BAL is 5-1 over teased. I actually like the over, but it could end 35-0 for a big fat tie, which is a teaser loss.
Take the ARI +3 points and if you're feeling risky, take the over 35, but if they're up 24-7 in the 4th, there may not be another point scored.
Summary of picks for those who are lazy and the green highlight isn't enough.
REALLY LIKE:
ARI + 3
ATL + 8.5
PATS +3
IND +8
KINDA LIKE:
CAR +10
OAK +16.5
MIN +10
HOU + 17.5
No comments:
Post a Comment