Now it's time to BANK SOME MONEY!!!
Last week, I had a very respectable 22-2 record in games picked. I missed the over in ATL/TEN and I missed HOU by 1/2 point because they missed a damn extra point then they went for two at the end of the game because they missed that extra point. Alas, if you picked my favorites you would be 2-0 on the year, betting $120 to win $100 the last two weeks we are plus $200 for the year.
1.) MIA (+9) @ NE (-9) O/U 51.5
Tom Brady has lost 2 out of his last 3 against the Dolphins and he's thrown a pick in 5 of the last 8 games against them. MIA lost by a combined 222-102 in the previous 7 games though. That's all history though, it's based on current team vs. current team. Be cautious though, this is Thursday Night Football, which means division rivalry and with it being so close to Halloween, that means SPOOKY things could be happening.
MIA has won by an astounding 82-36 margin the last two games, the two games with the new head coach. In reality, it is by more than that though because they were up 41-0 at the half against HOU and probably played some weak prevent to allow the 26 points they did. Lamar Miller has back to back 100 yard games and is averaging almost 9 yards/carry over those. NE is only 25th against WRs this year (according to DK) so I wouldn't be surprised if Jarvis picked up some late junk yard, but probably isn't going to make a difference in the game.
Tom Brady has thrown 16 TDs and 1 INT. His season QBR is 113.2. They've scored AT LEAST 28 points and he has thrown for AT LEAST 2 TDs in every game this year. They are 6-0 ATTS. The reason they're so good is they shut down the other team's best offensive weapon. Against the Colts last year, they ran the ball A LOT to keep Luck off the field, against the Jets Ivory only had 41 yards and against MIA they are going to shut down Lamar Miller. They'll take their chances with Tannehill airing it out and probably get a pick or two.
MIA and NE are both 5-1 TO (teased over). MIA has almost gone over by themselves in the last two games though. NE has gone over by themselves in one game this year and their only under was against a putrid Cowboys team with Weeden at the helm. Even then, the 'Boys should have scored a TD to make it 6-0 for NE.
I like NE +4, but thank it's best to avoid the O/U. I would lean more towards O 38.5 though because I don't think Brady would mind if Garoppolo finished this one up 42-0 with 2 TD's/piece to Edelman, Gronk and Amendola.
2.) DET (+4.5) @ KC (-4.5) O/U 45.5
These two teams have a combined THREE wins. If it's only their third games of the season or so, that's not bad, but they've played a combined 14 games, that's a solid .214 winning %. I am not going to spend too much time on this game based on that alone.
DET has only covered the spread once this year, ATTS though they're 6-1. I expect Stafford and CJ to have a good game against this terrible pass D. I don't even know who the Lions RB is, but since their season is essentially over, I would expect them to try and put up some kind of record for receiving yards so the season isn't a total loss. That means CJ would need more than 336 yards which he fell just short of this week just two years ago. In his last 3 week 8's played, he's put up 125, 129, and 329. I like this even more because I suspect them to be down in this game in the second half.
KC despite winning one more game, has looked equally as bad as the Lions, but in their defense, they've had a brutal schedule. In three straight weeks, they had to play the Broncos (6-0), go to GB (6-0) and go to Cincy (6-0). They beat the Steelers by 10, who beat the Cardinals by 12, so the Chiefs are 22 points better than the Cardinals? But they lost to the Bears by 1, who lost to the Cardinals by 25 so they are somewhere between 26 points worse and 22 points better than the Cardinals. So maybe the transitive property doesn't always work. The Chiefs at home have actually outscored their opponents.
DET and KC are both 6-1 TO despite KC going under in their last three. They've held opponents to 18, 16 and then 13 last week. The Lions offense hasn't been all that solid either, scoring over 19 only once in their last 6 games.
Based on teaser logic, I like DET +17.5, but based on recent play, I like KC +8.5. I wouldn't pick either, but prefer KC over DET in this one. Also based on recent trends, if I had to choose, I would say under 58.5 but think I will avoid both.
3.) MIN (-1.5) @ CHI (+1.5) O/U 42.5
Minnesota is quietly having a pretty solid year, while Chicago has no so quietly (because anything involving Cutler or Chicago is publicized heavily) sitting at 2-4. Both teams have had their ups and downs (MIN more ups, CHI more downs).
MIN lost their opener at SF, Monday Night, only managing a FG early in the 4th quarter. Since then they're 4-1 only losing to the Broncos on a FG (in the final two minutes) who are still undefeated. Beyond that, they're also 5-0 ATS and on the season 6-0 TU (teased under). Teddy has been pretty mediocre (One 300 yard game, One 2 Pass TD game, 5TDs, 4 INTs. The ironic thing is that AP hasn't been all that special the last 3 games (Zero 100 Yard Games, 2 Total TD, 3.9 YPC). The difference is that they've found a way to win for the most part, but at least cover.
CHI has scored 0, they've scored 34. They've allowed 17 and they've allowed 48. Even being 16.5 favorites, they just bared covered teased 13 in one game and didn't at all in another. That being said, their last three games have been decided by a TOTAL of 6 points. Those teams have a combined 6 wins though. That tells me they stink against the good teams, play well against the bad teams, but MIN is a middle of the road team. I would say they're better than the previous competition though.
As mentioned above, the Vikes are 6-0 TU, while the Bears are 4-1 TU their last 5. You do the math, what's the best pick here?
I will see how the rest shape up, but as of now, I like MIN +10.5 and under 55.5 but would avoid both picks.
4.) TB (+7) @ ATL (-7) O/U 48.5
These two teams have played very differently this year, Atlanta being 6-1, the Buccs being 2-4. This is a divisional game but any typical concerns I have about this game can be thrown out the window. TB is simply not that good.
ATL has played MUCH better at home than on the road. Their last two road games they have a loss and game they only scored 10 points. Matty Ice has thrown 4 picks to 3 TDs in his last three games which is also affecting Julio Jones. His rating has been under 65 in two of those games as well. Their offense has decreased in points the last four games, 48-25-21-10. I DO NOT see that trend continuing, but I am not sure how they score all their points. ATL's defense has looked pretty terrible the prior 6 games, allowing a minimum of 19 in every one of them. I thought coming off of a 10 day rest, they would do better against the Titans, but it wasn't to be. They ARE going to score at least 28 points in this game and I am guessing it comes on the ground mostly. TB has the 4th best rushing offense this year, while ATL has the 2nd best rushing DEF (ATL wins that battle).
TB has been atrocious on defense. They are tied for the highest PPG allowed with the Bears including allowing 31 to the Jags and Redskins, 37 to the Panthers and 35% of the Titans points on the year were scored against the Buccs. On the other end, their offense just isn't that great. They've put up 68 in the last two weeks which is just less than the 72 they put in the previous 4 games combined.
ATL is TO in 6 of 7 games (their last being that one). TB is TO in 5 of 6 games this year, tying on the other one. However, with Atlant's recent offensive trouble and their D against the run (TB's strong suit) I don't see TB scoring many points.
I REALLY like ATL +6 and if you need a pick, take the under 61.5, but I would avoid it because Jameis could see some Crab Legs in the stands and just starting throwing pick 6's like crazy.
5.) NYG (+3) @ NO (-3) O/U 49
These two QB's have a lot more in common than I bet most people know. This is a battle of former Charger #1 draft picks (Eli 1st round, Drew 2nd round) which tells me the Chargers have great taste in QBs. Unfortunately, Rivers hasn't had much of a team around him while these two have combined for 3 Super Bowl Wins. They both have the EXACT same single game high in passing yards at 510. They've both thrown 5 INTs in a game as well. So Chargers - Bad, 510 - Good, Super Bowl - Good, 5 - Bad.
The Giants come into this game winning 4 of their last 5 games. Although in their last two, they lost by 20 to Philly (discounted the margin slightly because it's divisional) and they barely beat a horrendously executing offense of the Cowboys. The Cowboys threw a pick 6, a pick that lead to a FG and a KO returned for a TD. Take away those mistakes and even this shell of a Cowboys team beats the Giants by 10 points. That being said, ATTS they're still 6-1 on the year, which is strong but I am slightly concerned with Odell's Hammy (even though they say he's at full strength), Prince, Cruz and the fact their starting left tackle is still out. Their offense is frankly terrible right now. They put up 1 offensive TD against the Cowboys, the Eagles, beat the 2-5 49ers on a last second TD and earlier in the season could not hold a 4th quarter lead. Frankly their only good win at the time was against the Bills (who just lost to the Jags), so how's that looking? I do expect Eli to put up 300+ though against this terrible pass defense and maybe some good ground numbers against an equally bad rush defense.
The Saints have won 3 out of 4, only losing in Philly against a team that seemingly found their groove winning by a combined 42 that week and the next. They beat the Falcons at home (big divisional game), they beat the Colts (which really needed that win but look bad this year) and they beat a Cowboys team on an 80 yard TD in OT when the Cowboys weren't ready so let's call it two good wins. Brees hasn't put up stellar numbers, 8 TDs, 4 INTs but against the Giants in his career, he has 12 TDs and 2INTs and is 4-1 against them. One weak suit of the Saints is their pass defense, they are allowing almost 280 yards a game, but the Giants only have one real receiver ODBJ so just gotta shut him down. The good news is that the Giants pass defense (especially without Prince) is even worse, they allow 288 through the air/game. I like Brees to also have a big game, just not sure with what receiver. I'll go ahead and say Willie Snead. Also, NO is 4-1 ATS (not the teaser spread, but straight spread) in their last 5.
I'll restate it as if I hadn't said it enough, but I don't typically like betting the O/U on games. However, this game is a little different. NO allows 26 PPG, NY scores 24 PPG, NY allows 22 PPG, NO scores 23 PPG. The O/U is 49.5, teased down to 36.5 which is a 27-10 score or 24-13 even. I would expect this to be done in the 3rd quarter.
I REALLY like the O/U if you can get it at 36, I also really like the Saints +10, but if you can get plus 10.5 they are a MUST take.
6.) SF (+8) @ STL (-8) O/U 40
This SHOULD be a horribly boring game. These two teams are last in PPG, averaging a horrible 14.7 and 18 respective to the lines above. They are also the only two teams averaging less than 300 yards of offense, per game by more than 25 yards. Rivers, Brady and Brees are averaging more yards per game by themselves than these two teams are averaging... AS A TEAM. The only QBs averaging less YPG are Weeden (backup) and Mallett (just kicked off the team as a backup). So more than likely, they'll put up a 60 spot.
San Fran scored 27 one game, their season high. The Pats scored 28 one game, their season low. There's a reason their average O/U is more than 5 points lower per game. Their offense is HORRIBLE. I am surprised they put up 3 against the Seahawks. They're only Hyde had one good game, he's averaged 50 YPG since and .16 TDPG (that's one TD in 6 games). Kaepernick is for someone reason smiling in his picture, it must be because he hasn't thrown any picks in 3 games, after throwing 5 the previous too. Well, the Rams stopped Rodger's streak and as long as Kaepernick isn't pulled, his will too.
The Rams are actually a MUCH better team in my opinion. They're 5-1 ATTS this year. They beat the Seahawks, Arizona AT Arizona and they beat the Browns who may only be 2-5 but have showed signs of life. The point differential on the year is 66 points better than the 49ers. They are THAT much better than the 49ers. That is more than the difference between the 6-1 Falcons and 1-5 Titans (even though they just beat them by 3 points). Gurley has averaged 144 yards his last 3 games, but more impressive in my opinion is his 6.4 YPC. The best single season YPC by a running back in the NFL EVER was Mercury Morris in 1973 at 6.4 YPC. There's a lot of season to be played, but that just tells you how good he's been in the last 3. SF is bottom 3rd of the league in RuYPGA. So expect Gurley early and often in this one. Other than that, the Rams don't have a threat. Kenny Britt has 224 yards on the season as their leader in receiving, that ranks him at 86th, just behind Arian Foster who didn't even play four full games, (also he's a RUNNING BACK) and just behind Alshon Jeffery who has played in just two games. Gurley has a big game, no one else (per normal) does.
The O/U in this game looks obvious. The Rams, teased under would be 6-0 their last 6, while the 49ers would be 4-1 in their last 5. However, the 49ers have allowed 43 and 47 points in two games this year while the Rams put up 34 against the Seahawks, but let's call that a fluke. Even a 24-20 game (which is the 2nd most the Rams have scored and would be the 3rd most the 49ers have scored) puts you under by 9 points.
I like the Rams +5 and if you're hankering for an O/U bet under 53, but this could be like the SEA/STL game where the 41 O/U is gone after 3 minutes in the 4th.
7.) ARI (-4.5) @ CLE (+4.5) O/U 46
At first glance, giving up 4.5 on the road, 5-2 team that has a +96 point differential (despite two losses) versus the "Who's my QB running saga for 17 years", 1st QB may be hurt, 2nd QB may be suspended, 2-5 team that has a -35 point differential looks like a runaway. The Cards have been favored in every game this year and the Browns have only been favored against Oakland... And they lost it. But let's delve deeper.
Arizona has not covered in 3 of their last four, somehow losing by 12 to the Steelers (only because Vick got hurt and Landry played out of his mind) in one of those games. On the year, their ATTS record is still 6-1 which is strong. Their DEF is strong also, they have 3 pick 6's this year and I think either McCown and Johnny (if not suspended) could provide them with another. They've scored with a rush, a reception, an INT and a kick return. I think they do get another pick 6, but I think it might be time for a fumble or punt return for a TD as well.
Cleveland has ATTS covered in their last 6, that's about all the positives I see here. They've allowed an average of 27 PPG in their last 5 including 24 to the aforementioned Rams above. Their offensive line has been TERRIBLE. They're being sacked the 2nd most in the league, 28th in the league in RuYPG and their only 8th in the league in PYPG because they're frequently down late. On the defensive side, they're worst in the league in RuYAPG at 151 with second being 132. They're also 27th in TO differential while the Cards are tied for 4th. Vegas is giving you 4.5 so you do have the teaser at 17.5, but I don't see it happening.
Both teams went SU OVER in their first 5, while Cleveland did in game 6 as well. ARI TO is 7-0, Cleveland TO is 6-0-1. Teased over, it's only 33 points, which ARI has put up 3 times by themselves this year, but I think they run the ball A LOT in this game especially as it's supposed to rain up until kickoff. I actually like the under better on this one. CLE TU is 5-1-1 (two losses really) while ARI TU is 5-1-1.
I really like ARI +8.5 (they better not let me down against another AFC North Team) and despite liking the under better, I think I am going to bet the over 33 since I am going to game, but I would avoid it.
8.) CIN (+1) @ PIT (-1) O/U 48.5
As rules were meant to be broken, undefeateds were meant to fall. As much as I hate Mercury Morris (is that his 2nd mention in this posting??) popping that champagne each year, I don't think this year features an undefeated team either, although an undefeated Super Bowl featuring the Packers vs. the Patriots would be AWESOME! But does it happen here?
Cincy is having a year for the ages and it's all due to Andy's hair or so I hear. Regardless, Dalton is the reason. He's the only factor I can find that's in the top 10 (that isn't really obscure like 2/3 on 4th down conversions - They've been leading most games what would they need to for on 4th down often?). ATS they are HOT 5-0-1 which means ATTS, they're 6-0. They're also hot over 5-1, TO 6-0. So betting the Bengals and over teased is two guarantees so far this year. But on the flip side, Dalton has lost his last 3 against PIT and is 1-3 in his career at PIT.
Pittsburgh has been very erratic without Big Ben. They beat ARI, but lost to KC. Bad loss, great win. They lead a final second drive to beat San Diego in a game that SD NEEDED BADLY. Depsite that, they're still 4-3 or even better 7-0 ATTS. They've been under in 6 of 7 games this year. However, TO or TU they're 6-1. Big Ben is supposed to be back, but as the Pittsburgh Post Gazette points out, his returns haven't been fantastic after injury - He's only 2-4 in those games, 63 less PaYPG, TD2INT from 1.92 to .85. This tells me he is tough but ALWAYS tries to come back too early. Career he is 16-6 against the Bengals 1.38 TD2INT ratio but 1to1 TD2INT ratio at home against them. They have so many offensive weapons, I am hesitant to bet against the Steelers in a divisional game with Ben returning.
This total is VERY high, the fields going to be wet, it's Sunday at Heinz so it's going to be windy, FGs are going to be missed. Steelers TU or TO are 6-1. Bengals TO are 6-0, TU 5-1. The last totals at Heinz in this matchup have been 44, 50, 23, 42, 30, 30, 37, 34, 48. That means in every matchup, TU would have won. There has NEVER in this matchup in Pittsburgh, been more than 61 points scored which is what would need to be scored in this game to over. In 1985 it was 37, 24 after a scoreless first quarter.
I don't like picking the matchup here because there is just too much uncertainty, but an undefeated team getting points on the road, I think I would pick them if I had to, CIN +14. I REALLY REALLY LOCK OF THE WEEK LIKE UNDER 61.5 though if you can get it, not so much at under 61.
9.) SD (+3) @ BAL (-3) O/U 50.5
This whole year I have been waiting for Baltimore to turn it around, the fact that they're 1-6 is just baffling to me. San Diego is under performing just as much. With the season Rivers is having, the 1st game back that Gates had, Melvin Gordon putting up those numbers, it is just shocking their record. These teams have both put up 33, 33 and 20 this year. Just a fun tidbit for you.
SD has only beat the lowly Lions and Browns this year. ATTS they're 6-1 though. Both of these teams have been terrible on defense this year though. They're allowing 27 (BAL) and 28 PPG which is simply terrible. I expect Rivers to put up a lot of passes, maybe not the 44 he's averaging a game, but a lot nonetheless. I also expect him and two of the three of Keenan Allen/Woodhead/Green to have big receiving games. I like Woodhead though because I expect them to be down late and I expect them to try and shut down Allen, so maybe Woodhead and Green, but Green would be more early in the game probably. Either way, I don't like SD in this one playing a game at 10AM PST. West division teams in the eastern time zone for 1PM games were a combined 19-52 from 07 to 11. I don't care that he's from AL, played in NC, he is on PST now and this will cause an issue with how he plays.
BAL is a pathetic 1-5-1 ATS that coming with a late 4th quarter TD last week. Surprisingly, they've played VERY close to the spread and Vegas finally changed them from being a favorite to underdog last week. So close to the spread that they're actually 7-0 ATTS. Great teams find a way to win, even if they barely do, bad teams find ways to barely lose. That tells me that the Ravens are a bad team.
I don't like the O/U here, because as a rule I simply don't like it, but also because BAL has scored between 13-33 and SD has scored between 14-33. A poor defense against a great offense usually means high scoring, but two poor defenses with two TO prone offenses (both top 10 in the league, means they could have 2-3 red zone TOs and 10 minutes are wasted with no points driving one way then driving back the other). Don't bet it.
I won't be betting either game, but take BAL +10 and over 37.5 if you feel the need, the need for tweed.
10.) TEN (+4.5) @ HOU (-4.5) O/U 43.5
Bovada doesn't currently have a line on this one because of Mariota's uncertainty. I also have uncertainty on betting this one. The only thing I know Tennessee used to be the Houston Oilers, but the Houston Texans are now the Houston football team. Both teams are in the HORRID AFC south (only division worse than the NFC East) which holds a combined record of 8-19. This is reminiscent of the NFC South last year (7-8-1 winning it), AFC West 2011 (Fighting Tebow's beating the Steelers in Round 1 of the playoffs with a 31.6 YPCompletion which is the highest ever for ten attempts) and of course, the NFC West of 2010 (Seattle and Peter Carrol's return to the NFL).
TEN played really well (I supposed) last week, only losing 10-7 to ATL. As I mentioned last week, if they could put up a 1st half FG (which they didn't) that game would maybe go over. Not that 3 points would have made a difference, but each team having 2 INTs really kept the score down. I expect more of the same from TEN here if Zachariah starts. But just pass, pass right now.
HOU had to let a QB go because he couldn't make a chartered flight on time. Their ALL WORLD DEF (facetious, sarcastic, in no way honest) is allowing 28 PPG. Hoyer however is passing for 293 in his last 3 games, but they also lost Foster. Alfred Blue has NOT played well when he's been in. Also Hopkins had his worst game of the year (only 50 receiving yards last week). Their offense is falling apart and their defense hasn't put together a respectable performance since allowing 9 against TB in week 3.
I don't like the OU at all in this because HOU offense sucks so does their defense. TEN offense sucks (now going 4 straight games with decreasing points). I would expect a low scoring affair.
I've said it one way or another at least three times in this game's analysis alone, but pass. If I had to pick I would say take TEN +17.5 (because I don't know if either team gets to 18, but this is a much better pick with Mariota at the helm) and under 60.5 regardless of which person is throwing the PigSkin for either in this battle for Bud Adams legacy.
11.) NYJ (-3) @ OAK (+3) O/U 44.5
This matchup is very intriguing to me. Let's proceed.
The Jets are 6-0 ATTS. They played NE well at NE, leading halfway through the 4th quarter. The only game they never lead was against the Eagles. I honestly am not sure if they lead in this one at one point but they need to get Chris Ivory going if they want to. He had just 41 yards and a 2.4 YPC, his 2nd lowest ever when running at least 13 times (his average RuAPG). I don't think that was so much him being bad, I think it was the Pats focusing on that. If Oakland is smart, they will do the same. This opens up the passing game (OAK weakness) which has been mediocre, but will allow for Marshall and Decker to get some looks, especially if they're down late. I actually really like Decker in this game as a 2nd recevier against a poor pass defense. Keep in mind that OAK started off the year TERRIBLE against the TEs, so Jeff Cumberland may be a VERY DEEP play as he only has 3 receptions on the season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see that doubled in this game.
Oakland is middle of the road in PaYPG, RuYPG (although closer to the bottom) and turnovers. Their downfall is their pass DEF, last in the league. Their upside is their run defense, 3rd in the league. Another upside is them being 5-0 ATTS in their last 5. I think they shut down Ivory and then have to pick a receive to double, probably Marshall. The Jets have a great run defense, so don't expect much from Murray in this one and their pass defense is top 5 also, so don't look to Carr and Cooper either. Their offense is NOT going to produce at the level it did against BAl and SD (37 points each) but more like the Broncos game where they only scored 10.
Both teams are 5-1 TO, NY is also 5-1 TU while OAK is 4-2 TU. Keep in mind that NY has allowed 20 points or less in 4 games this year and OAK has scored 20 or less in 3 games this year and most of their points are scored in the 1st half. I think the Jets slow down the offense of the Raiders in this one.
Although OAK is 5-0 ATTS, I like the Jets +10 in this one. If you can get the Jets+10.5 they are A LOCK. Despite more of the games going over, the Jets offense being run centric (6th highest % in the league) mixed with the Raiders run defense being stout, I like under 57.5 as well. I wouldn't bet it though because there are better picks out there.
12.) SEA (-6) @ DAL (+6) O/U 41
This matchup is VERY easy for me. I am going to do NO analysis and just give you want you need to know. This may be because I am a Cowboys fan (I guess I did analyze the pick a little).
Seattle + 7, DO NOT touch the O/U but under 54 if you had to pick because Dallas's offense, even with Dez, won't do anything against SEA's D.
13.) GB (-3.5) @ DEN (+3.5) O/U 45.5
I think this will be a GREAT Sunday night game. I just hope after coming back from Cleveland I can have enough energy to watch it. If you think Peyton and Rodgers, most people think TD's, but did you know these two teams are allowing the least PPG in the league 16.8 and 17 respective to the matchup above.
We all know how great GB has been on the offensive side, but their last road game, they only put up 17 points. Rodgers hasn't gone for a calendar month without 300 yards (before Oct. 2015) since Nov. 2012. Now he's going up against the best pass defense in the league? Oh also, you're giving them a FG to start the game. There's a hodge podge at RB, they've had three different leading rushers the last 3 games (Rodgers, Lacy and Starks). Oh by the way, that top pass DEF is also 3rd against the RUN. And you're giving them a FG to start the game? I think people may blindly take Rodgers and the Packers +10 because they look more flashy but bettor beware. When Rodgers has gone against good/serviceable pass defenses this year (top 10 YPG) he averages 248 YPG, 2 TD and .67 INTs. His worst game was against St. Louis and both them and Denver lead the league in sacks with 26 and 23. I still think Rodgers gets a TD or two, he's still Rodgers, but maybe they sneak in a run of a trick play to get it done against this defense, I mean they're still 6-0 ATTS this year.
Manning has more INTs than TDs this year, 10 to 7. He's only averaging 254 YPG. His QBR is 46.4. Yet his team is 6-0. They've done it with DEFENSE. They lead the league in sacks (mentioned above, Rodgers does not do well when getting sacked a lot), the 3rd lowest QBR and YPA and they've allowed the least amount of passing TDs in the league. Good against the pass, good against the rush and GBs running game will not do a THING against this defense. Like the Packers, they are 6-0 ATTS. I think the Broncos running game wins this one for them. Like the Pats against the Colts last year, keep Rodgers off the field, the Pack are allowing the 6th highest yards per carry and play good defense.
I don't think Rodger's has a Rodger's type game, Pack may put up 17-20 in this one. That means the Broncos would need 39 to lose the TU. TO the Pack are 5-1, DEN is 4-2. TU the Pack are again 5-1, DEN is 6-0. Four years ago in GB (which is also a different animal) this game was 49-23 but Kyle Orton through 3 picks to give GB some easy scoring opportunities. They've only played once H2H the score was 34-14 in '08. All signs point to under.
I think this game is more enjoyable if you don't bet on it and instead just watch these two masterful QBs struggle a little bit, making them seem more human, but if you're betting I take DEN +16.5 and under 58.5.
14.) IND (+7) @ CAR (-7) O/U 45.5
I wish this game was Sunday night and the GB/DEN game was Monday night. I unfortunately don't think this will be that great of a game but I would LOVE to be surprised.
The Colts come in at 3-4, losing to the Bills, Jets, Pats and Saints. They had a 3 game winning streak, but two of those were with Hasselbeck behind center. So Luck is a terrible, 1-4 this year. They've been down by at least 13 in ever game he has started this year, even in their win. They CANNOT do that against the Panthers. I personally think they have no chance of winning this game but maybe luck will come through #PUN (that was supposed to be lower case because I don't think Luck will come through, but hoping for their sake some luck does like Newton broken ankle, Josh Norman thinks he has a pick 6 but Hilton catches and runs in for a 60 yard TD or maybe even Franklin Gore busts a run longer than his season high of 25 yards. At least get 32 (his age)!
Carolina allows the 2nd least YPA passing, haven't allowed more than 23 this season and their PPGA is like a bell curve, trending down again (9, 17, 2, 23, 23, 16) so by that logic the Colts would score 8-10 points. Newton has 13 Total TDs to only 7 TOs (but 5 in the last two games), but I don't think they need much on the offensive side to win this game, which is good because they don't have a whole lot. Between Kuechly, Norman and dare I say Kurt Coleman (2nd on the team in tackles behind Thomas Davis), I don't see IND's offense doing anything either.
I don't foresee much scoring in the game at all, but it's Monday night, Andrew Luck is turnover prone so I say pass on it, but if Luck doesn't turn the ball over, this should be a low scoring game (I guess that makes sense).
If you want to bet primetime, combine this with the bets on SNF, but hoping your winnings from earlier in the day are enough to make you happy. Take CAR +6 and under 58.5 if you must.
I REALLY LIKE:
NE +4
ATL +6
NYG/NO O 36
SEA + 7
I kinda like:
CIN/PIT U 61
STL +5
ARI +8.5
NYJ +10
No comments:
Post a Comment