SHERMY'S SAFE SIX!
These are going to be the picks that I like the MOST this weekend with a SHORT analysis.
1.) CIN @ IND (-3)
IND is 5-1 ATS, only not covering due to a last second FG by Cody Parkey against the Eagles. I think AJ Green, Burfict, Marvin Jones will all be out or not at full strength. I like the Colts to win by at least 3 in this one.
2.) KC @ SD (-4)
SD didn't cover the spread against OAK, which was last week. OAK had a new coach, a new attitude and they showed it at home against the Chargers. The Chargers are now 5-1 SU and ATS. They own the single season best ATS record at 13-1-2 and they are well on their way this year. KC is a mess, lose by 16 at home to the Titans, beat the Fighting Brady's by 27. Charles is not at full strength Knile Davis can't be the back they need him to be. Their leading RECEIVER is averaging less than 50 yards/game and although Travis Kelce has come on strong, I expect this San Diego team (who is +73 Pt Differential on the year) to smoke KC like the namesake did with the peace pipe years ago.
3.) CAR @ GB (-7)
Although GB hasn't looked like their super bowl prior selves, I think Eddie Lacy is finally back, Aaron Rodgers has everyone RELAXing and the duo of Nelson/Cobb is enough to run and fly by this Carolina defense which was so heralded early. CAR is 4-2 ATS but lost SU against a TERRIBLY playing Pittsburgh team, got beat by 28 at Baltimore and then luckily TIE thanks to a Nuge missed field goal that he makes over 80% of the time. But he's only 65% for the year, including 50% from 40+ so maybe it wasn't a gimme as much as people thought. Regardless, GB gets a BIG win, maybe the biggest of the week.
4.) NYG @ DAL (Over 48)
The NYG got shut out for the first time in... well it was late last year, so it's not a real long time. But they did get shut out, and they will be hungry to do some scoring. Not having Victor Cruz hurts, but that just means that other weapons that maybe Dallas isn't prepared for will step up. The last few games in this series have put up, 45, 67, 53, 41, 45, 71, 53, 75, 55, 66. I wanted to keep going until I found a low total. That's an average of 57.1 points in the last 10. At Dallas, the last 5 have averaged 66.2 points. This is GOING TO BE A SHOOTOUT or it could be a 14-10 game. If it's not 14-10 I expect a 27-24 minimum. This is a great game to tease the over.
5.) SF (+6.5) @ DEN
DEN is good at winning, but not good at covering the spread. They are 2-3 ATS while SF is 4-2 ATS. Wes Welker hasn't come back to full form and SF seems to be getting their stuff together, covering the spread in the last 3 weeks. DEN only covered last week due to a last minute pick 6. Carlos Hyde is going to be getting more and more carries it appears and this may be the decline of Frank Gore for your fantasy leagues.
6.) Lock of the WEEK!!!
Don't bet. If you don't bet you can't lose. I am trying to find the stat, but something along the lines of 2% of sports betters end up profitable in the long run. This is my lock of the week.
I don't know if I can keep up with the finance/mortgage weekly, but I will keep up with the sports weekly, so feel free to check back on Friday. Also, if I really like the Thursday game, I may throw up a short writeup about that.
Shermy's Six Went A solid 1-5 in week 1.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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