Happy Halloween!!!

It appears this blog was meant to be 

bi-weekly.

I have to leave town early today for a Garth Brooks/Chris Gaines concert (yee-haw).

Who's going to show up?

Which leads me into a nice segway for this weeks NFL picks, it's all about who's going to show up.

SHERMY'S SAFE SIX!

These are going to be the picks that I like the MOST this weekend with a SHORT analysis.

Last week I went 3-3, should have been 4-2 but thanks to a questionable call on Steve Smith, a TD was called back 80 yards. All that matters is the end score though and I screwed the pooch. For the year I sit at 8-10 (that's losing money in Vegas ya'll).

1.) SD (+1) @ Miami

Antonio Gates

Miami for the year is 13th in the league against the TE, which is slightly better than average. But when they've played upper level TEs (Gronk and Kelce) they gave up well above the NFL average in points. Gates started off the year HOT 13 receptions, 177 yards and 2 TDs in two games. He had a little cold stretch, but the last four games he has 15 receptions, 202 yards (and most importantly) 6 TDs so better than 1 of 3 receptions is going for a TD. I expect somewhere in the range of 5 receptions, 80 yards and a TD for a respectable performance and enough to put the Chargers (who are on a 2 game losing streak) on top with the win straight up even.

2.) JAC @ CIN (-10.5)

"AJ Green"

That 1/2 point is SO important. Teams that are 10 points favorites since 2003 cover or tie 55.7% of the time. Teams that are 10.5 favorites only cover 48.9% of the time. Jacksonville however is 1-3 ATS on the road and Cincy is 3-1 ATS at home. In addition the line opened at 13.5 and has moved down to 10.5. That means there's been a lot of money on Jacksonville +13.5 down to +11. Vegas makes money on losers, only 2% of people that gamble on sports win, so go away from the money. The others have bought the line down for you, now is the time to take advantage. It's a small sample size but the two games AJ Green has played at home, they've covered. He may get injured, he won't be 100% but he will be an asset for them.

***If AJ Green or Giovani Bernard doesn't play this pick will be the other way***

There will not be an update on this blog however.

3.) PHI @ HOU (Under 49)

Not the Colts

HOU is 2-1 at home UNDER with their over being a Thursday night amped up game against the Colts. PHI is 1-2 on the road UNDER with their over being on a Monday night amped up game at the Colts. Do you see a common theme here? You know who IS going to show up, JJ Watt. And I mean the real JJ Watt, not the fake JJ Watt. Foles has thrown 7 INTs in the last 6 games. Last year he threw 2 in 10 starts. Maybe DeSean Jackson leaving had a little impact on him? Maybe LeSean McCoy not being as great as expected did? Maybe Darren Sproles being out hasn't helped? Somehow with their line issues, he's only been sacked 7 times, but I expect Watt to change that number. I expect 1.5 sacks and a few TFL on McCoy for Watt and a lower scoring than expected contest, maybe in the range of 24-14 Eagles.

4.) ARI (+4) @ DAL

"Brandon Weeden"

Did I like when Brandon Weeden had to come in? No. 

Would I have preferred Kyle Orton to still be there? Yes. 

Do I know anything about the 3rd string QB, Dustin Vaughn? I know he is 6-5, 233 pounds and played at Texas A&M in 2012 and through 45 TDs... Sorry, West Texas A&M. Larry Fitzgerald had his best game since 2007 and Carson Palmer has 3 straight games with 2 TD's (actually 4 but then he missed 3 games) for the Cardinals. On the Cowboys defense, Justin Durant (the Cowboys leading tackler) is out for the year and Bruce Carter is going to play more now and broke his finger in practice. Tony Romo is now a game time decsision, which means he will play but won't be 100%. Garrett said he wanted to lower the load on Demarco Murray so obviously there will be more emphasis on the pass (they're #2 in the league in highest % of running plays).

5.) STL @ SF (-9.5)

Colin Kapernick

Last game against the Rams Kaepernick had 343 yards passing, 3 TDs and another 37 on the ground. He's not going to repeat that performance, but I do expect a good game. The Rams 1-2 ATS on the road, the 49ers are 2-1 ATS at home. Since Austin Davis's 375 yard game against the Eagles, he's thrown for 236, 155 and 160. In addition, Brian Quick is out for the reason who was a big play guy for them earlier this year. As long as they keep Jared Cook under wraps I don't see STL having much offense to go with and this SF defense is pretty good actually (less the 42 point performance against Denver, but I throw out Peyton Manning results as an outlier. Of the 21 they allowed to PHI, 14 was on a punt block and interception return. That's the most they've allowed in the last 3 games (less Peyton Manning outlier) In addition, they are coming off of a bye week, which means they'll be rested and ready to go. I think Frank Gore may actually have a decent game as well, but that's really going out on a limb.

6.) DEN @ NE (Over 54)

Peyton Manning & Tom Brady

Some people are saying this could potentially be their last matchup. The Patriots are set to play the AFC West team that finishes in the same position as them. I see both of these teams finishing in 1st in the in their division and playing in 2015 in Denver. And even before that they could be headed for a crash course in the playoffs unless the Colts or Charges can derail that matchup. The points previously put up in this matchup are 57, 55, 52, 38, 51, 23, 61, 47, 72, 44, 69 (classic 7 TDs and Colts go to 9-0), 59, 52, 65 (in OT) and 42. An average performance of 52.5 points but taking into consideration the Patriots defense was a lot stronger in the first 6 matchups (Manning finally won the 7th matchup) I expect it to be more like the last 7, so an average of 64. How this isn't a primetime game I don't know. Statistically this year the Patriots are 5-0 OVER their last 5, the Broncos are 4-0 OVER their last 5 and it appears 

Brady has found his groove putting up 317, 3.5 TDs and 0 INTs on average the last 4 games. 

I think Manning has found himself too, 330, 3.5 TDs and .5 INTs the last 4 games. If those averages continue, that's 49 points not figuring in any FGs and Gostkowski is sure to get at least a FG or 2. As long as the weather doesn't play a big factor, I really like the over.

Have a great weekend everyone!