Money is the root of all evil... So lets talk about how to win some money on betting...
As you probably know by now, this is a bi-weekly blog, so today's focus on sports betting! There's a lot of divisional or playoff battles on the line, starting with Thursday.
SHERMY'S SAFE SIX!
These are going to be the picks that I like the MOST this weekend with a SHORT analysis.
Last week I went 5-1 again, damn Browns... That does put me at 16-14 for the year and a WINNING RECORD!!! However, with the vig in Vegas, I would still be down a few dollars.
1.) BUF @ MIA (Under 41.5)
AFC East/Battle to Stay Above .500
The Dolphins defense is actually pretty solid. They've allowed only 43 points in the last four game, less than half of the league scoring average. Remember that thing about Tannehill where every other game he does well? This would be a game where that would be the case. However, he is slightly banged up, Lamar is a little banged up and Branden Albert is hurt. Albert is their left tackle, usually the position reserved for the best pass blocker for right handed QB's. I think this will have a bigger than expected impact on their overall offensive game.
The Buffalo Bills have had 3 games in the past five where the WINNING team had 17 points. That means the most points scored in those games could be 33, if they won 17-16 (which by the way they did on Oct. 19th). Fred Jackson is a likely a scratch tonight, so Boobie Dixon will be filling in along with Bryce Brown and Phillip Tanner.
Both defenses are in the top 10 in points allowed and barring a defensive touchdown, I like a decently low scoring game here. I think the final is 20-17 (which is also the most common score in NFL history). I am not going to pick them, but if the score is 20-17, the Bills by default with a +4.5 spread.
****More picks will come tomorrow, just wanted to post that for tonight****
2.) MIN @ CHI (Over 46)
NFC North/Battle to Stay out of the Basement
Minnesota is on a winning streak. It's against Tampa and Washington, but it's still a win streak. The Bears had one of those, back in September. They beat the 49ers (impressive) and Jets (expected). They're currently on a 3 game losing streak. Based on patterns, I can see Chicago pulling this one out, L W's L L W L L L (W?). Minnesota's pattern is pretty similar, but it started with a W instead of an L, W L L W L L L W's (L?). Against common opponents, it's absolutely amazing how similar they are. Both have won one game, beating the Falcons (by 13 and 14 respectively). They've also lost to the Packers (32 and average of 31), Buffalo (1 and 3), NE (23 and 28).
I just can't quite put my finger on these Bears. They get upset by Buffalo (and now backup QB), then come back to beat San Fran. They get killed by Green Bay then double up the Falcons. They then allow 51+ points in back to back games, putting them in company with the Rochester Jeffersons (who got one of their only two wins against NFL opponents beating the Columbus Panhandles... Not a strong name). The Jeffersons were bad. These Bears are bad... I think... Their defense is terrible, worst in the league by PPG. Guessing that has something to do with Charles Tillman not being in there and the fact that Marc Trestman is an offensive minded coach. They've allowed more points in each successive game for four straight, that ends here though, the Vikings won't put up 56 or more.
The Vikings are doing nothing impressive this year. Their wins are against teams that have a combined 10-26 record. Their losses are against teams with a combined 29-17 record. Beating the bad, losing to the good. One good sign is that Teddy Bridgewater's passer rating has increased the pass 3 games.
There's too much similarity and inconsistency between these teams to choose a winner on the spread, you get 3 points for being a home team and that's why the spread is 3 points, these teams should probably end up at a 28-28 tie. You have to find what's been consistent. The Bears defense has CONSISTENTLY bad. They've allowed the most points in the league and only two of those were allowed by the offense or special teams, so not a lot of overstated poorness there. The Vikings have scored more and more points the last four games. I think Teddy gets his 2nd career 300 yard game, Forte has 130+ total yards of offense and this one barely goes over, maybe on a last minute FG to make the score 24-23.
3.) HOU @ CLE (Under 41.5)
Wild Card/Newest Expansion Teams/Brady's 2011 Backups
This could POTENTIALLY be two wild card teams in the AFC, although Houston would need to step their game up. The likely division winners are Patriots, Colts and Broncos. The AFC north is still up for grabs, and potential wild cards teams include Miami, Buffalo, all of the AFC North, Houston, KC and San Diego. Still a lot to be determined.
The Browns, after going over in their 1st 4, have now gone under in their last 5. They've only allowed more than 17 once in their last 5 and that was due to two fourth quarter TD drives of 8 yards and 7 yards, so the true score of that game was closer to 10-6. Their offense has put up an average of 23 points the last 3 games against TB, OAK and CIN (all of which who are negative on point differential or the season). Jordan Cameron is out again, Andrew Hawkins is banged up and of course Josh Gordon is still out until Monday. I kind of see this being a Christmas like game for the Browns. Josh Gordon is the big package waiting to be unwrapped. Their offense, which despite early success really isn't that good... Hoyer has thrown for multiple TD's twice this year. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick has done that more times (Segue)...
But Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't starting, Ryan Mallett is (I sponsored his page because I think he is going to be a star here soon and just in case people check it out, whether from Texas or Ohio, I am licensed in both states). That being said, I have one less NFL reception than Mallett does NFL completions. The word is that Mallett has a hell of an arm, he also sat behind behind Tom Brady for the 2011-2013 seasons. Kind of reminds me Aaron Rodgers... Drafted from a decent size school, sat behind a future hall of famer for 3 years and is said to have a great arm. Not many rookies come out in their first game and have a great showing though. Rodgers went 18-22 with a TD, but I don't expect those numbers from Mallett because this is a midseason change, not the revolving carousel that was Brett Favre's retirement decision. Arian Foster has been limited in practice, more precautionary I am sure, but he's had health issues so he's not 100%. On the defensive side they are expected to have Clowney, Watt and Cushing healthy for the 1st time all season. They've been STRONG defensively, so the Browns should be a little intimidated by that.
I really like the under, like it more as a tease of 6 points, making it under 47.5. If I had to guess though, I would say the Browns pull this one out because Mallett just hasn't had the reps with the 1st teamers. If the Texans get one or less TD's from their special teams or defense I really, really like the under, but I feel like they may go crazy at mostly full strength.
4.) SEA @ KC (-2)
Former AFC vs. Current AFC
For all those Seahawks fans holding their breath when the team fell to 3-3, they're now 6-3 and showing they're not completely done yet. However, as far as covering a spread on the road, they're 1-3 this year. Their one win (that probably should have pushed) was thanks to a 30 yard screen pass to Marshawn Lynch with 2:33 left in the game against Washington.
On the opposite side, the Chiefs are a very good home team. They're 3-1 ATS at home this year and one of three 7-2 ATS teams in the league overall. In betting, most trends even out. Since 2003 the best ATS record is 58%, the worst is 41%. 58% is profitable, but barely nets a profit. They're also 2-7 on the over, which means they've had 7 of 9 games go under. The Chiefs are eventually going to even out a little between ATS and O/U.
The money is on Seattle (57%) and the under (71%). But Seattle is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 Over. I like KC in this one, leaning towards the under, but not touching it.
5/6.) CIN @ NO (-6.5) (Over 50)
Who Dat vs. Who Dey
New Orleans is great at home, the Bengals are not good on the road.
The Saints are covering at a CRAZY rate of 76% at home since 2011 (which includes 4-4 Bounty Gate year). That means that betting $110 on them to cover at home would have profited you $1,430, take out 2012 and that's a profit of $1,470 on only 21 games, pretty solid. Mark Ingram has looked like a man. Drew Brees is just better at home. He's got a winning percentage that is .135 better, he's thrown 61 more TDs and 7 less INTs, a rating of 10% points higher and he just lost his last game at home, winning his previous 11 starts there. Throwing out 2012 again, he hasn't lost back to back home games since 2009 when they started 14-0 and clinched everything up. I don't see this being the next time.
The Bengals are another confusing team. They beat Baltimore twice this year, but lose by 21 to Cleveland. They lose by a combined 70-17 against the Pats and Colts and tie a not very good Carolina team. Their trend is downward. But hey, at least Dalton won't have any wind issues this time around. Giovanni and Burfict I don't see playing or playing well if they do due to injuries.
The Saints are 7-2 Over, 2-2 home ATS.
The Bengals are 4-5 Over and 1-2 away ATS (sole win in week 1).
I don't see the Saints losing again at home and coming out strong. I like their offense in this game, I think Andy Dalton bounces back too to produce some offense, but not enough to win this one.
Have a great weekend everyone!
***Disclaimer - All puns are intended ***
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